市场情绪对住房成交量影响的实证研究

An Empirical Study of the Impact of Market Sentiment on Housing Turnover

摘要: 本文使用2012~2022年31个省市的面板数据，从已有研究基础出发，通过主成分分析法构建了我国31个省份住房市场的情绪指数并可视化，实证研究了住房市场情绪对住房成交量的影响。另外，还测度不同区域住房市场情绪指数，通过实证分析横向对比东部、中部和西部地区市场情绪对住房成交量的影响程度。研究发现：市场情绪对住房成交量有显著的正向影响；同时，市场情绪对住房成交量的正向影响呈现区域异质性，西部地区市场情绪对住房成交量的影响程度强于东部和中部地区。研究为了解市场情况提供重要的参考，也可以为政策制定和市场预测提供有益的支持。

Abstract: Using the panel data of 31 provinces and cities from 2012-2022, this paper constructs and visualizes the sentiment index of the housing market in 31 provinces in China through principal component analysis from the existing research foundation, and empirically investigates the impact of housing market sentiment on housing turnover. In addition, different regional housing market sentiment indexes are also measured, and the influence of market sentiment on housing turnover is compared horizontally among eastern, central and western regions through empirical analysis. The study finds that market sentiment has a significant positive impact on housing turnover; at the same time, the positive impact of market sentiment on housing turnover shows regional heterogeneity, with the western region having a stronger impact on housing turnover than the eastern and central regions. The study provides an important reference for understanding the market situation and can also provide useful support for policy making and market forecasting.