跨境电商对我国城市经济韧性的影响分析

Analysis of the Mechanism of Cross-Border E-Commerce on the Resilience of China’s Urban Economy

摘要: 面对日益增加的内外部不确定性，高效构建有韧性的城市经济格局刻不容缓。根植于数字经济场景下的跨境电商已成为我国城市经济韧性提升的重要驱动力。利用2012~2021年全国248个地级市以上城市面板数据，采用多期双重差分法实证考察了跨境电商对城市经济韧性的影响，结果表明：1) 跨境电商能够显著增强我国城市经济韧性，该结论经过安慰剂检验、倾向得分匹配等稳健性检验后依然显著成立。2) 数字经济、技术创新、就业结构是提升城市经济韧性的三大抓手。跨境电商以跨境电子商务综合试验区为准自然实验，通过数字经济提升效应、城市技术创新效应、就业结构优化效应间接促进经济韧性不断提升。3) 跨境电商对城市经济韧性的促进效果会受到城市规模、城市层级、资源禀赋等特质的影响。相比于中小型城市、中心城市、资源型城市，跨境电商试点政策对大型城市、外围城市和非资源型城市的经济韧性的提升作用相对较强。

Abstract: In the face of increasing internal and external uncertainties, it is urgent to build a resilient urban economic structure efficiently. Cross-border e-commerce, rooted in the digital economy, has become an important driving force for the improvement of China’s urban economic resilience. Based on the panel data of 248 cities above prefecture-level cities in China from 2012 to 2021, the impact of cross-border e-commerce on urban economic resilience is empirically investigated by using the multi-period difference-in-difference method, and the results show that: 1) Cross-border e-commerce can significantly enhance the economic resilience of cities in China, and this conclusion is still significantly valid after robustness tests such as placebo test and propensity score matching. 2) Digital economy, technological innovation, and employment structure are the three major levers for improving urban economic resilience. Cross-border e-commerce is a quasi-natural experiment in the cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zone, which indirectly promotes the continuous improvement of economic resilience through the promotion effect of the digital economy, the effect of urban technological innovation, and the optimization effect of employment structure. 3) The promotion effect of cross-border e-commerce on urban economic resilience will be affected by the characteristics of city size, city level, and resource endowment. Compared with small and medium-sized cities, central cities, and resource-based cities, the cross-border e-commerce pilot policy has a relatively strong effect on the economic resilience of large-scale cities, peripheral cities, and non-resource-based cities.