少子化对居民家庭消费及消费升级的影响
The Impact of Low Fertility on Household Consumption and Consumption Upgrading
DOI: 10.12677/ass.2025.142112, PDF,   
作者: 王秉璠：重庆大学公共管理学院，重庆
关键词: 少子化；家庭消费；消费升级；Low Fertility； Family Consumption； Consumption Upgrade
摘要: 文章采用2010~2018年中国家庭动态追踪调查(CFPS)的家庭面板数据，结合生命周期理论和家庭储蓄需求模型，基于双固定效应模型考察了少子化对居民家庭消费及消费升级的影响。研究发现，少子化有利于提升居民家庭消费水平，并且有助于居民家庭消费结构升级。分城乡的异质性检验表明，少子化对农村家庭的消费水平存在更为显著的正效应。而农村家庭分地区的异质性检验显示，少子化对农村家庭消费的影响在经济发展水平不同的地区之间存在显著差异，少子化对欠发达西部地区的农村家庭消费的促进作用更加强烈，显著促进了西部地区农村家庭的消费水平提高。
Abstract: Using the household panel data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) from 2010 to 2018 and combining the life cycle theory and household savings demand model, this paper examines the impact of low fertility on household consumption and consumption upgrading based on a double fixed-effect model. The study finds that low fertility is conducive to improving household consumption levels and helping households upgrade their consumption structure. The heterogeneity test by region and urban-rural areas shows that low fertility has a more significant positive effect on rural household consumption levels. The heterogeneity test by region shows that the impact of low fertility on rural household consumption varies significantly between different regions, with a stronger promotion effect on rural household consumption in the less developed western regions, significantly improving the consumption level of rural households in these regions.
文章引用：王秉璠. 少子化对居民家庭消费及消费升级的影响[J]. 社会科学前沿, 2025, 14(2): 195-205. https://doi.org/10.12677/ass.2025.142112

参考文献

[1] Loayza, N., Schmidt-Hebbel, K. and Servén, L. (1999) What Drives Private Saving across the World? Working Papers Central Bank of Chile.
[2] Kelley, A.C., Schmidt, R.M. (1996) Saving, Dependency and Development. Journal of Population Economics, 9, 365-386.
[3] Kuhn, M. and Prettner, K. (2015) Population Structure and Consumption Growth: Evidence from National Transfer Accounts. ECON WPS—Vienna University of Technology Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy.
[4] Li, H., Zhang, J. and Zhang, J. (2007) Effects of Longevity and Dependency Rates on Saving and Growth: Evidence from a Panel of Cross Countries. Journal of Development Economics, 84, 138-154. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[5] Kraay, A. (2000) Household Saving in China. The World Bank Economic Review, 14, 545-570. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[6] 李文星, 徐长生, 艾春荣. 中国人口年龄结构和居民消费: 1989-2004 [J]. 经济研究, 2008(7): 118-129.
[7] 汪伟. 经济增长、人口结构变化与中国高储蓄[J]. 经济学(季刊), 2010, 9(1): 29-52.
[8] 李响, 王凯, 吕美晔. 人口年龄结构与农村居民消费: 理论机理与实证检验[J]. 江海学刊, 2010(2): 93-98+239.
[9] 汪伟, 艾春荣. 人口老龄化与中国储蓄率的动态演化[J]. 管理世界, 2015(6): 47-62.
[10] 刘铠豪, 刘渝琳. 中国居民消费增长的理论机理与实证检验——来自人口结构变化的解释[J]. 劳动经济研究, 2014, 2(2): 83-111.
[11] 陈晓毅. “老龄化”和“少子化”是否影响了农村居民消费?——基于静态和动态空间面板模型的实证研究[J]. 北京工商大学学报(社会科学版), 2015, 30(3): 118-126.
[12] 毛中根, 孙武福, 洪涛. 中国人口年龄结构与居民消费关系的比较分析[J]. 人口研究, 2013, 37(3): 82-92.
[13] 王维国, 刘丰, 胡春龙. 生育政策、人口年龄结构优化与经济增长[J]. 经济研究, 2019, 54(1): 116-131.
[14] 曲兆鹏, 赵忠. 老龄化对我国农村消费和收入不平等的影响[J]. 经济研究, 2008, 43(12): 85-99+149.
[15] 汪伟, 刘玉飞. 人口老龄化与居民家庭消费结构升级——基于CFPS2012数据的实证研究[J]. 山东大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2017(5): 84-92.
[16] 齐红倩, 刘岩. 人口年龄结构变动与居民家庭消费升级——基于CFPS数据的实证研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2020, 30(12): 174-184.
[17] 丁继红, 应美玲, 杜在超. 我国农村家庭消费行为研究——基于健康风险与医疗保障视角的分析[J]. 金融研究, 2013(10): 154-166.
[18] 范兆媛, 王子敏. 人口年龄结构与居民家庭消费升级——基于中介效应的检验[J]. 湘潭大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2020, 44(2): 62-68.
[19] 杨凡, 潘越, 黄映娇. 中国老年人消费结构及消费升级的影响因素[J]. 人口研究, 2020, 44(5): 60-79.
[20] Modigliani, F. and Brumberg, R. (1954) Utility Analysis and the Consumption Function: An Interpretation of Cross-Section Data. In: Kurihara, K., Ed., Post Keynesian Economics, Rutgers University Press, 388-436.
[21] Samuelson, P.A. (1958) An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money. Journal of Political Economy, 66, 467-482. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[22] Neher, P.A. (1971) Peasants, Procreation, and Pensions. American Economic Review, 61, 380-389.

为你推荐