基于复杂网络的全球锂资源贸易及鲁棒性研究

Global Lithium Resource Trade and Robustness Based on Complex Networks

摘要: 锂作为新兴关键矿产资源，对新能源产业发展具有重要作用，然而其在世界范围内储量分布不均，受地缘政治、贸易政策不确定等因素的影响，全球锂贸易合作日益紧密的同时存在一定的脆弱性。基于此，本文利用2000~2023年全球碳酸锂和氢氧化锂的双边贸易数据构建全球锂贸易网络，研究全球锂贸易的网络演变以及节点重要性；同时，基于蓄意攻击仿真模拟方法，计算关键节点和集合、连边失效后锂贸易网络的鲁棒性，以此评估攻击策略的有效性。研究发现：全球锂资源贸易规模扩大的同时，出口却越来越集中在少部分国家，其中，智利、中国、阿根廷是主要的碳酸锂出口国，中国、智利和美国则是主要的氢氧化锂出口国；关键少数节点对锂贸易网络安全运行具有决定作用，尤其是中介中心度排名靠前的经济体；相较于碳酸锂贸易网络，氢氧化锂贸易中经济体之间的贸易联系更为牢固，其连边断裂导致网络崩溃的临界值较高。

Abstract: As an emerging key mineral resource, lithium plays an important role in the development of the new energy industry, but its reserves are unevenly distributed around the world, and due to the influence of geopolitics, trade policy uncertainty and other factors, the global lithium trade cooperation is increasingly close and there is a certain vulnerability. Based on this, this paper uses the bilateral trade data of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide from 2000 to 2023 to construct global lithium trade networks, and studies the network evolution and node importance of global lithium trade. At the same time, based on the deliberate attack simulation method, the robustness of the lithium trading network after the failure of key nodes, ensemble and edges is calculated, so as to evaluate the effectiveness of different centrality indicators as attack strategies. The results show that while the scale of global lithium trade is expanding, exports are increasingly concentrated in a small number of countries, among which Chile, China and Argentina are the main lithium carbonate exporters, and China, Chile and the United States are the main lithium hydroxide exporters. The key few nodes play a decisive role in the safe operation of lithium trade, especially in the economies with high intermediary centrality. Compared with the lithium carbonate trading network, the trade links between economies in the lithium hydroxide trade are stronger, and the critical value of network collapse due to the breakage of the chain is higher.