货币国际化对进出口贸易的影响研究——基于双边货币互换协议视

Internationalisation on Import and Export Trade—Based on the Perspective of Bilateral Currency Swap Agreements

摘要: 货币国际化是一个需要一系列政策工具驱动的曲折过程，双边货币互换协议作为推进人民币国际化的系列政策之一发挥着重要作用。2024年，相关国家已经成功完成39个双边本币交换协定，这些国家的积极参与使得这些国家成为中国双边本币交换的核心领域。而双边本币互换协议在我国与这些国家的进出口之间通过货币汇率波动的影响后又存在何种联系，这值得做一些研究。本文采用DCC-MIDAS模型，首先利用两步法的GARCH-MIDAS部分对双边汇率的波动进行测算，其次对2005年至2024年期间签署的双边本币互换协议的国家及地区的进出口贸易影响进行了深入的分析。研究结果表明，该协议不仅显著促进了人民币与相关国家货币之间的关系，而且还有助于中国经济的可持续发展。

Abstract: Currency internationalisation is a tortuous process driven by a series of policy tools, and bilateral currency swap agreements play an important role as one of the series of policies to promote the internationalisation of the RMB.2024, the relevant countries have successfully completed 39 bilateral local currency swap agreements, and the active participation of these countries has made these countries become the core area of China’s bilateral local currency exchange. And what kind of linkage exists between bilateral local currency swap agreements in the import and export between China and these countries through the impact of currency exchange rate fluctuations, which is worth doing some research. This paper adopts the DCC-MIDAS model to firstly measure the fluctuation of bilateral exchange rate by using the GARCH-MIDAS part of the two-step method, and secondly conducts an in-depth analysis of the impact of the import and export trade of the countries and regions that have signed the bilateral local currency swap agreement during the period from 2005 to 2024. The findings show that the agreement not only significantly promotes the relationship between the RMB and the currencies of the countries concerned, but also contributes to the sustainable development of China’s economy.