人口接触对菌株竞争传播规模的影响

The Impact of Human Contact on the Transmission Scale of Strain Competition

摘要: 为了研究人口接触模式对流行病传播的影响，本文基于经典的易感者–感染者–恢复者(SIR)模型，构建了一个包含接触强度的双菌株竞争传播模型，重点分析了接触强度对单菌株感染规模、双菌株感染规模及菌株间竞争的影响。结果表明，当接触强度达到一定阈值时，流行病的传播规模会迅速扩大；传播较快的菌株在高接触强度下占据竞争优势。此外，不同的菌株感染率对竞争态势的调节作用显著，反映了双菌株传播机制的复杂性。研究还表明，通过合理控制接触强度，可有效减缓流行病扩散速度并改变菌株间的竞争态势。本研究提出的模型为理解复杂传染病传播机制提供了新的理论框架，为制定精细化的防控策略提供了方法参考。

Abstract: To investigate the impact of human contact patterns on epidemic transmission, this study extends the classical Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model by incorporating contact intensity into a dual-strain competitive transmission framework. The analysis focuses on the effects of contact intensity on the infection scale of single strains, the co-infection scale of dual strains, and the dynamics of strain competition. The results reveal that when contact intensity surpasses a certain threshold, the epidemic transmission scale expands rapidly. Strains with faster transmission rates gain a competitive advantage under high contact intensity. Furthermore, variations in strain-specific infection rates significantly influence the competitive dynamics, highlighting the complexity of dual-strain transmission mechanisms. The study also demonstrates that regulating contact intensity effectively slows down the spread of epidemics and alters the competitive dynamics between strains. The proposed model offers a novel theoretical framework for understanding the intricate mechanisms of infectious disease transmission and provides methodological insights for developing targeted and refined control strategies.