中国与RCEP国家双边贸易潜力研究——基于扩展的贸易引力模型分析

Research on the Bilateral Trade Potential between China and RCEP Countries—Based on the Analysis of the Extended Trade Gravity Model

摘要: RCEP的签订为中国与有关国家贸易开辟了新前景。本研究选取2012至2022年的面板数据，借助扩展的贸易引力模型，针对中国与RCEP成员国在贸易影响因素及贸易潜力方面展开实证探究。研究结果表明：中国与RCEP国家各国的GDP和人口、两国首都之间的距离、RCEP国家各国的外贸依存度以及中国与RCEP国家各国是否存在共同语言对中国与RCEP国家各国货物双边贸易具有显著的影响，并且通过稳健性检验后结果仍然显著；中国同RCEP国家各国均处于“潜力开拓型”阶段，说明双方的货物贸易潜力指数较大。基于研究结果对中国与RCEP国家的双边贸易提出合理化建议，以推动中国与RCEP国家双边贸易的发展。

Abstract: The signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has opened up new prospects for trade between China and relevant countries. This study selects panel data from 2012 to 2022 and, with the help of the extended trade gravity model, conducts an empirical exploration on the influencing factors and potential of trade between China and the member countries of RCEP. The research results show that the GDP and population of each RCEP country, the distance between the capitals of the two countries, the foreign trade dependence of each RCEP country, and whether there is a common language between China and each RCEP country have a significant impact on the bilateral goods trade between China and each RCEP country. Moreover, the results remain significant after the robustness test. China and each RCEP country are all in the “potential exploration” stage, indicating that the trade potential index of bilateral goods trade between the two sides is relatively large. Based on the research results, reasonable suggestions are put forward for the bilateral trade between China and RCEP countries to promote the development of bilateral trade between them.