1981~2023年北京“数九寒天”气温变化特征分析

Analysis on the Temperature Change Characteristics of the “Nine Coldest Days” in Beijing from 1981 to 2023

摘要: 本研究利用1981~2023年北京地区15个气象观测站的数据，分析了北京“数九寒天”期间的气温变化特征。研究发现“数九”期间气温呈“V”型分布，验证了“三九严寒”的说法，温差近8℃。整个研究期间北京“数九寒天”有显著增温趋势，年均增温0.0603℃/年，尤其在“三九”、“八九”和“九九”时段。研究时段极端最低气温也呈上升趋势，但增温速率较小。气温空间分布呈“南高北低、西低东高”格局，受地形和城市化影响，城市热岛效应显著。全球变暖和城市化导致北京“数九寒天”特征显著改变，对城市管理和居民生活产生影响。建议加强极端气温事件预测、研究城市化对气温的影响、扩大研究区域、评估气候变化对各领域的影响，以适应气候变化。

Abstract: This study analyzed the temperature change characteristics during the “nine coldest days” by using data from 15 meteorological observation stations in the Beijing area from 1981 to 2023. The study found that the temperature during the “nine coldest days” showed a “V”-shaped distribution, verifying the saying of “the severe cold in the third nine-day period”, with a temperature difference of nearly 8˚C. During the entire study period, there was a significant warming trend during the “nine coldest days” in Beijing, with an average annual warming rate of 0.0603˚C per year, especially in the “third nine-day period”, the “eighth nine-day period” and the “ninth nine-day period”. The extreme minimum temperature also showed an upward trend during the study period, but the warming rate was relatively small. The spatial distribution of temperature presented a pattern of “higher in the south and lower in the north, lower in the west and higher in the east”. Affected by topography and urbanization, the urban heat island effect was significant. Global warming and urbanization have led to significant changes in the characteristics of the “nine coldest days” in Beijing, which have an impact on urban management and residents’ lives. It is recommended to strengthen the prediction of extreme temperature events, study the impact of urbanization on temperature, expand the research area, and evaluate the impact of climate change on various fields in order to adapt to climate change.