近40年西北太平洋登陆热带气旋活动变化趋势及其机制分析
Trend and Mechanism Analysis of Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Western North Pacific over the Past 40 Years
DOI: 10.12677/ccrl.2025.142018, PDF,    国家自然科学基金支持
作者: 朱 颖, 许士斌*：中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院，山东 青岛；黄 菲：中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院，山东 青岛；中国海洋大学物理海洋实验室，山东 青岛；中国海洋大学海洋高等研究院，山东 青岛
关键词: 热带气旋；登陆；趋势；环境条件；Tropical Cyclone； Landfall； Trend； Environmental Conditions
摘要: 本文基于热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone, TC)最佳路径数据集，对1980~2021年期间西北太平洋(Western North Pacific, WNP) TC的生成频数与登陆TC的频数进行了比较。研究发现，尽管过去40年WNP TC总数有显著的下降趋势，但登陆TC数量并无显著趋势。根据登陆区域的不同，将登陆TC路径分为三类：北上转折(C1)、西北行(C2)以及南海西行(C3)三类。结果表明，C1类的频数呈显著增加趋势，C2类的频数变化不显著，而C3类则表现出下降趋势。这三类登陆TC频数的差异主要与台湾岛以东海域的异常气旋性环流以及西太平洋副热带高压(Western Pacific Subtropical High, WPSH)的北移趋势有关。进一步分析显示，尽管C1类和C3类TC的登陆强度及其对陆地的破坏力变化趋势不明显，C2类TC的登陆强度和陆上破坏力却呈显著增加趋势。沿海海面相对温度(Relative Sea Surface Temperature, RSST)的升高、陆地土壤湿度的增加等环境因素，为登陆TC的强度维持及其登陆后的存活提供了有利条件，从而增强了C2类TC的破坏潜力。
Abstract: This study, based on the best track dataset of tropical cyclones (TCs), compares the genesis frequency of TCs in the Western North Pacific (WNP) with the frequency of landfalling TCs during the period 1980~2021. The results reveal a significant decreasing trend in the total number of TCs in the WNP over the past 40 years, whereas the frequency of landfalling TCs shows no significant trend. Landfalling TC tracks are categorized into three types based on their landfall regions: northward-turning (C1), northwestward-moving (C2), and westward-moving into the South China Sea (C3). The frequency of C1-type TCs shows a significant increasing trend, C2-type TCs remain relatively stable without significant change, and C3-type TCs exhibit a decreasing trend. These variations are mainly associated with anomalous cyclonic circulation east of Taiwan Island and the northward shift of the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH). Further analysis reveals that while the landfall intensity and destructive power of C1- and C3-type TCs show no significant trend, C2-type TCs exhibit a notable increase in landfall intensity and destructive potential. Environmental factors, such as the rise in relative sea surface temperature (RSST) and increased soil moisture over land, provide favorable conditions for maintaining the intensity of landfalling TCs and extending their survival post-landfall, thereby amplifying the destructive potential of C2-type TCs.
文章引用：朱颖, 黄菲, 许士斌. 近40年西北太平洋登陆热带气旋活动变化趋势及其机制分析[J]. 气候变化研究快报, 2025, 14(2): 167-177. https://doi.org/10.12677/ccrl.2025.142018

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