ESG表现对分析师盈余预测准确性的影响——来自A股上市公司的实证研究

The Impact of ESG Performance on the Accuracy of Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts—An Empirical Study from A-Share Listed Companies

摘要: ESG表现作为企业公开透明的非财务信息，在缓解投资者与企业之间的信息不对称性中发挥着重要作用；并且近些年资本市场的快速发展，使得证券分析师在资本市场中的作用越来越突出。基于两者都以投资者为导向，故本文以中国2019~2021年A股上市公司为研究样本，通过建立回归模型实证分析企业ESG表现与分析师盈余预测准确性的关系。研究表明：较好的ESG表现对分析师盈余预测具有显著的促进作用，即企业ESG的评级越高，分析师的盈余预测越准确，预测误差越小。本文的研究结论，不仅在理论上丰富了影响分析师盈余预测行为因素的研究内容，而且在实践上有助于激励企业自觉完善ESG管理体系、提高发展的可持续性，还可以为监管机构完善法律法规和分析师盈余预测提供依据。

Abstract: As a transparent non-financial information of enterprises, ESG performance plays an important role in alleviating information asymmetry between investors and enterprises. In addition, the rapid development of the capital market in recent years has made the role of securities analysts in the capital market more and more prominent. Since both are investor-oriented, this paper takes China’s A-share listed companies from 2019 to 2021 as the research sample, and empirically analyzes the relationship between corporate ESG performance and the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts by establishing a regression model. The study shows that better ESG performance has a significant promoting effect on analysts’ earnings forecasts, that is, the higher the ESG rating of the enterprise, the more accurate the analyst’s earnings forecast and the smaller the forecast error. The research conclusions of this paper not only enrich the research content of the factors affecting analysts’ earnings forecast behavior in theory, but also help to motivate enterprises to consciously improve their ESG management system and improve the sustainability of development in practice. It can also provide a basis for regulators to improve laws and regulations and analysts’ earnings forecasts.