西江与东江水文干旱遭遇风险研究

Hydrological Drought Encounter Risk between the Xijiang River and Dongjiang River

摘要: 水资源分布与生产力布局不相匹配，是我国珠江流域的突出水情，保障下游城市供水安全已成为社会经济可持续发展的重要问题。本文基于西江下游高要站和东江下游博罗站的月径流量数据开展西江与东江的水文干旱遭遇风险研究。研究结果表明，西江与东江同时遭遇水文干旱的风险较高，其中同时遭遇轻旱、中旱、中旱和特旱以上级别的重现期分别为0.5年、1年、3年和11年，但同时遭遇极旱的风险则较低。此外，在西江出现旱情的条件下，东江出现轻旱和中旱的风险较高，但出现特旱和极旱的风险较低。西江与东江的水文干旱风险遭遇规律可为广东省“西水东调”项目实施和水资源合理调度提供科学参考。

Abstract: The mismatch between water resource distribution and productivity layout is a prominent water situation in the Pearl River Basin of China. Ensuring water supply security for downstream cities has become a crucial issue for sustainable socio-economic development. Based on monthly runoff data from the Gaoyao station in the lower reaches of the Xijiang River and the Boluo station in the lower reaches of the Dongjiang River, this paper conducts a study on the risk of hydrological drought encounters between the Xijiang River and the Dongjiang River. The results indicate that there is a high risk of simultaneous hydrological droughts in both rivers, with return periods for simultaneous mild, moderate, severe, and extreme droughts being 0.5 years, 1 year, 3 years, and 11 years respectively. However, the risk of simultaneous extreme droughts is relatively low. Furthermore, under the condition of drought in the Xijiang River, the risks of mild and moderate droughts in the Dongjiang River are higher, while the risks of severe and extreme droughts are lower. The patterns of hydrological drought risk encounters between the Xijiang River and the Dongjiang River provide a scientific reference for the implementation of the “West-to-East Water Diversion” project in Guangdong Province and the appropriate scheduling of water resources.