中国已婚育龄女性生育意愿及其影响因素研究——基于CGSS (2021)的实证分析

A Study on the Fertility Intentions of Married Women of Childbearing Age in China and Its Influencing Factors—Based on the CGSS (2021) Data, An Empirical Analysis

摘要: 我国正面临复杂的人口问题，人口老龄化加剧、人口红利减弱，导致国家出台一系列生育政策鼓励居民生育。然而，国家统计局数据显示，人口出生率并未达到预期，甚至出现了负增长率，反映出中国人口结构正发生显著变化，对经济和社会发展带来挑战。因此，研究居民生育意愿的影响因素具有重要的现实意义。本文主要运用多元统计分析方法，探讨了影响我国已婚育龄女性生育意愿的因素。研究发现，尽管大部分受访者对生育二孩持积极态度，但不同群体之间的生育意愿存在显著差异。具体而言，年龄较大、城镇居民、教育程度较低以及中低收入水平的人群更倾向于表达强烈的生育意愿；而教育程度越高，生育意愿越弱，反之亦然。此外，生活幸福度较高的人群倾向于选择较少的子女，而生活幸福度较低的人群则更倾向于多生育子女。在社会经济地位方面，低收入、下层社会经济地位且未受过教育的人群生育意愿较强，而高收入、中上层社会经济地位的人群生育意愿相对较弱。通过构建对数线性模型进一步分析发现，低收入人群的生育意愿更为强烈，而中等收入和高收入人群的生育意愿则相对较弱。这些结果表明，生育意愿受到多种因素的综合影响，反映了我国在人口结构变化背景下复杂的生育观念差异。根据研究结果，建议制定鼓励生育政策，加强教育宣传和改善教育质量，提供经济支持和社会保障，提高生活幸福度和社会环境，并多维度考虑个体差异。本研究旨在引导合理的生育决策，平衡人口结构，满足人们的生育需求，并为未来社会可持续发展提供支持。

Abstract: China is currently facing complex population issues, with an intensified aging population and a diminishing demographic dividend. These challenges have led the government to introduce a series of pro-natalist policies to encourage childbirth. However, data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the birth rate has not met expectations and has even turned negative. This reflects significant changes in China’s population structure, which pose challenges to economic and social development. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the factors influencing residents’ fertility intentions. This study employs multivariate statistical analysis to explore the factors affecting the fertility intentions of married women of childbearing age in China. The findings indicate that, although most respondents are positive about having a second child, there are significant differences in fertility intentions among different groups. Specifically, older respondents, urban residents, those with lower education levels, and those with middle-to-low income levels tend to express stronger fertility intentions. Conversely, higher education levels are associated with weaker fertility intentions. Additionally, individuals with higher life satisfaction tend to prefer fewer children, while those with lower life satisfaction are more inclined to have more children. In terms of socio-economic status, those with low income, lower social-economic status, and no formal education show stronger fertility intentions, while high-income individuals and those with upper-middle socio-economic status have weaker fertility intentions. Further analysis using log-linear models reveals that low-income groups have stronger fertility intentions, while middle- and high-income groups have relatively weaker intentions. These results demonstrate that fertility intentions are influenced by a combination of factors, reflecting the complex fertility attitudes against the backdrop of China’s changing population structure. Based on the findings, it is recommended to formulate pro-natalist policies, enhance educational propaganda and improve educational quality, provide economic support and social security, increase life satisfaction and improve the social environment, and consider individual differences from multiple dimensions. This study aims to guide rational fertility decisions, balance the population structure, meet people’s fertility needs, and provide support for future sustainable social development.