中美贸易摩擦对中国高端制造业OFDI与其创新绩效关系的影响研究

The Impact of China-US Trade Friction on the Relationship between OFDI and Innovation Performance in China’s High-End Manufacturing Industry

摘要: 在全球经济一体化背景下，中美贸易摩擦加剧对全球经济及中国企业海外投资产生了深远影响。基于2010~2022年A股上市的高端制造企业OFDI数据，采用双重差分模型，探讨了中美贸易摩擦对中国高端制造业OFDI与其创新绩效之间关系的影响。研究结果表明，中国高端制造业企业的OFDI对其创新绩效有显著的正向影响。同时，中美贸易摩擦对中国高端制造业OFDI与创新绩效的关系产生了负向调节作用，且这一调节效应在不同市场环境下呈现异质性。具体来看，在发达国家市场，中美贸易摩擦削弱了高端制造业企业OFDI对创新绩效的正向影响，而在发展中国家市场则表现为促进作用。基于此，建议企业应注重提升自主创新能力，政府应出台相关政策支持，以帮助企业应对中美贸易摩擦带来的挑战，促进高端制造业的健康、可持续发展。

Abstract: In the context of global economic integration, the intensification of China-US trade friction has had a profound impact on the global economy and overseas investment by Chinese enterprises. Based on OFDI data from high-end manufacturing firms listed on the A-share market from 2010 to 2022, this study employs a difference-in-differences (DID) model to explore the effect of China-US trade friction on the relationship between OFDI and innovation performance in China’s high-end manufacturing sector. The results indicate that OFDI by Chinese high-end manufacturing firms has a significant positive effect on their innovation performance. Additionally, China-US trade friction negatively moderates the relationship between OFDI and innovation performance, with this moderating effect showing heterogeneity across different market environments. Specifically, in developed markets, trade friction weakens the positive impact of OFDI on innovation performance, while in developing markets, it has a facilitating effect. Based on these findings, it is recommended that firms focus on enhancing their independent innovation capabilities, and that governments implement supportive policies to help firms navigate the challenges posed by China-US trade friction, thereby promoting the healthy and sustainable development of the high-end manufacturing sector.