新发展格局下江苏产业链供应链韧性评价研究

Study on the Evaluation of Jiangsu Industrial and Supply Chain Resilience under the New Development Paradigm

摘要: 新发展格局通过深挖未满足的需求，或通过创新驱动创造新需求，不仅畅通国内大循环，还吸引国外高质量资源要素流向中国，为产业链供应链韧性提升提供了契机。基于此背景，本文构建了包括免疫抵御力、适应恢复力、自主控制力、革新竞争力和发展持续力在内的多维评价指标体系，运用熵值法测度2017~2022年江苏、浙江、广东等10个制造业强省的产业链供应链韧性，并分析其时空演变特征。研究表明：(1) 江苏产业链供应链韧性水平整体较高，在10个省份中排名第二，但与第一名广东仍存在差距。(2) 十大制造大省的产业链供应链韧性空间格局在研究期内总体保持稳定，但江苏省2020年的高值区降为2022年的较高值区，韧性水平仍需提升。最后，为增强江苏产业链供应链韧性，文章根据不同产业链的特点，提出相应的政策。

Abstract: The new development paradigm, by exploring unmet demand or generating new demand through innovation, not only facilitates a domestic economic cycle but also attracts high-quality foreign resources and factors to flow into China, thereby enhancing the resilience of the industrial and supply chains. Based on this background, this paper constructs a multi-dimensional evaluation index system, including immune resistance, adaptive resilience, autonomous control, innovation competitiveness, and development sustainability. Entropy method is used to measure the industrial and supply chain resilience of 10 manufacturing provinces, including Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong, from 2017 to 2022, and analyzes its spatial-temporal evolution characteristics. The research shows that: (1) The overall level of industrial and supply chain resilience of Jiangsu is relatively high, ranking second among the 10 provinces, but there is still a gap with the first Guangdong. (2) The spatial pattern of industrial and supply chain resilience across the ten major manufacturing provinces remained stable during the study period. However, the high-value area in Jiangsu Province in 2020 shifted to a lower value area by 2022, indicating that its resilience still needs improvement. Finally, to strengthen the resilience of industrial and supply chains in Jiangsu, this paper proposes targeted policies based on the specific characteristics of different industrial chains.