中国当前生育情况对婚姻稳定性的影响研究——基于空间计量模型的研究

A Study on the Impact of Current Fertility on Marital Stability in China—A Study Based on Spatial Econometric Modeling

摘要: 本文基于2012年至2022年全国31个省份的数据，利用空间计量模型研究了生育情况对离婚率的影响。研究发现，离婚率在空间上具有显著的正相关性，存在明显的空间溢出效应。具体而言，核心解释变量中，出生率对离婚率的提高呈显著正向作用，较高的出生率与较高的离婚率相关联。另一方面，生育政策的放宽有助于降低离婚率，表明政策干预在婚姻稳定中起到积极作用。此外，研究还发现城市化水平、房价和互联网信息化水平对离婚率有正向促进作用。相反，抚养比和受教育程度对离婚率有显著的抑制作用。空间误差自回归系数显示，邻近省份的离婚率提高对本省份的离婚率有正向影响。这表明，离婚率的空间溢出效应明显，即一个地区离婚率的上升可能导致周边地区的离婚率也相应上升。基于上述结论，本文提出通过经济补贴、育儿支持、合理城市化等措施，提高婚姻稳定性，降低离婚率。

Abstract: Based on data from 31 provinces across China from 2012 to 2022, this paper investigates the impact of fertility situation on divorce rate using spatial econometric modeling. It is found that the divorce rate has a significant positive spatial correlation, and there is an obvious spatial spillover effect. Specifically, among the core explanatory variables, the birth rate has a significant positive effect on the increase in the divorce rate, and a higher birth rate is associated with a higher divorce rate. On the other hand, the relaxation of fertility policies contributes to lower divorce rates, suggesting that policy interventions play a positive role in marital stability. In addition, the study found that the level of urbanization, house prices and the level of Internet information technology positively contribute to the divorce rate. On the contrary, dependency ratio and education level have a significant inhibitory effect on the divorce rate. The autoregressive coefficient of spatial error shows that the increase of divorce rate in neighboring provinces has a positive effect on the divorce rate in this province. This indicates that the spatial spillover effect of divorce rate is obvious, i.e., the increase of divorce rate in one region may lead to the corresponding increase of divorce rate in neighboring regions. Based on these conclusions, this paper proposes to improve marital stability and reduce the divorce rate through measures such as economic subsidies, childcare support, and rational urbanization.