全球天然橡胶贸易复杂网络稳健性分析

Analysis of the Robustness of the Complex Network of Global Natural Rubber Trade

摘要: 天然橡胶作为四大工业原料之一，天然橡胶的产地分布较为集中，节点、网络的稳定性对于其贸易而言至关重要，从全球视角来看，贸易网络的稳定性有利于对整个贸易体系高效、稳健地运行做出保障；对于国家而言，贸易稳定是其供给安全及经济安全的重要保障，特别是对于我国作为全球最大的天然橡胶消费国而言，稳定的贸易关系和贸易环境有利于在一定程度上保障我国工业安全乃至经济安全，因此研究贸易网络的稳健性至关重要。本文通过模拟在随机攻击和蓄意攻击下的天然橡胶贸易网络的失效过程，根据网络稳健性特征值的相关指标，分析两种攻击模式对网络脆弱性影响的差异性，同时验证天然橡胶贸易网络是否符合无标度网络和小世界网络的特性。

Abstract: As one of the four major industrial raw materials, the production areas of natural rubber are relatively concentrated. The stability of nodes and networks is crucial for its trade. From a global perspective, the stability of the trade network helps ensure the efficient and robust operation of the entire trade system. For a country, trade stability is an important guarantee for its supply security and economic security. Especially for China, as the world’s largest consumer of natural rubber, a stable trade relationship and environment can, to a certain extent, safeguard China’s industrial security and even economic security. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the robustness of the trade network. This paper simulates the failure process of the natural rubber trade network under random attacks and deliberate attacks. Based on the relevant indicators of network robustness eigenvalues, it analyzes the differences in the impact of the two attack modes on network vulnerability. At the same time, it verifies whether the natural rubber trade network conforms to the characteristics of scale-free networks and small-world networks.