全新世以来滇西南地区森林火灾变化规律研究

A Study on the Pattern of Forest Fire Variations in Southwest Yunnan since the Holocene

摘要: 本文通过系统整理与分析全新世以来滇西南地区的森林火灾数据，揭示了该区域森林火灾的发生规律及其与气候变化和人类活动之间的关系。研究结果表明：(1) 森林火灾活动的频率和强度呈现明显的环境依赖性，频繁且强烈的火灾事件主要发生在寒冷–中等干燥气候条件下或伴随显著人类活动的时期，而低频火灾活动则与暖湿气候条件或暖湿化趋势增强时期相对应。(2) 在时间尺度上，森林火灾的主导控制因素发生了显著转变：4300 cal.a BP之前，火灾活动主要受气候因素控制；4300 cal.a BP之后，则转变为气候与人类活动的共同影响。随着人类活动强度的持续增强，炭屑浓度显著升高，表明人类活动对森林火灾的影响已明显超越气候变化的作用。(3) 现代炭屑浓度的空间分布格局与2001~2013年卫星观测的火灾活动数据高度吻合，这不仅证实了炭屑数据对区域森林火灾历史的可靠记录能力，同时也表明炭屑浓度高值区与人类活动密集区存在显著的空间对应关系。

Abstract: This paper systematically organizes and analyzes forest fire data from southwest Yunnan since the Holocene, revealing the occurrence patterns of forest fires in this region and their relationships with climate change and human activities. The results indicate that: (1) The frequency and intensity of forest fire events exhibit a clear environmental dependency, with frequent and intense fires primarily occurring under cold-to-moderately dry climatic conditions or during periods of heightened human activity, while low-frequency fire events are associated with warm-humid climatic conditions or phases of increasing warm-humidification. (2) On a temporal scale, the dominant drivers of forest fire activity have undergone significant shifts: prior to 4300 cal.a BP, fire occurrence was primarily influenced by climatic factors; however, after 4300 cal.a BP, both climate and human activities jointly influenced fire regimes. As human activity intensified, there was a marked increase in the concentration of charcoal debris, suggesting that anthropogenic factors have increasingly overshadowed the role of climate change in driving forest fires. (3) The spatial distribution pattern of modern charcoal debris concentrations shows a strong correlation with satellite-derived fire activity data from 2001 to 2013. This not only supports the reliability of charcoal debris as a record of regional fire history but also demonstrates a significant spatial congruence between areas of high charcoal concentration and regions of intensive human activity.