上海落户人口动态与产业结构变化的关联性研究(2018~2022)

Research on the Correlation between the Dynamics of Settled Population and Industrial Structure Changes in Shanghai (2018~2022)

摘要: 本文聚焦2018~2022年，深入探究上海落户人口动态与产业结构变化之间的紧密关联。通过对上海市统计局、人社局等官方渠道获取的多维度数据进行严谨分析，运用多元线性回归模型和向量自回归(VAR)模型等方法，全面剖析两者关系。研究发现，落户人口规模与结构显著推动产业结构升级，产业升级也反向吸引人才落户，且两者存在明显均值溢出效应和波动溢出效应。本研究为上海制定更科学合理的人口政策和产业发展规划提供了有力的理论与实证依据。

Abstract: This study focuses on the period from 2018 to 2022 and deeply analyzes the close relationship between the dynamics of the settled population and industrial structure changes in Shanghai. By collecting multi-dimensional data from official channels such as the Shanghai Statistics Bureau and the Shanghai Human Resources and Social Security Bureau, and using methods like the multiple linear regression model and the vector autoregressive (VAR) model for rigorous analysis, the research comprehensively reveals the relationship between the two. The research results show that the scale and structure of the settled population have a significant promoting effect on the upgrading of the industrial structure. At the same time, industrial upgrading also attracts talent to settle in. Moreover, there are obvious mean spillover effects and volatility spillover effects between the two. This research provides a solid theoretical and empirical basis for Shanghai to formulate more scientific and reasonable population policies and industrial development plans.