基于混合选择模型研究建成环境主观感知对通勤方式选择的影响

Research on the Impact of Subjective Perceptions of the Built Environment on Commuting Mode Choice Based on a Hybrid Choice Model

摘要: 建成环境是影响出行行为的重要因素，为探索出行者对建成环境的感知是否会对出行行为产生影响。本文根据上海市居民通勤出行问卷调查数据，获取居民对居住地和工作地的建成环境主观感知，同时设置了居住地和工作地两端的出行安全性、周边配套设施可达性、公共交通可达性、出行路况、出行美学、停车方便性，一共12个潜变量，使用多项logit模型(Multinomial Logit Model, MNL)和含潜变量的混合选择模型(Hybrid Choice Model, HCM)进行估计，全面分析了个人社会经济属性和建成环境主观感知对出行方式选择的影响。结果表明，1) HCM模型拟合系数大于MNL模型拟合系数，拟合优度提升率为10%，表明HCM模型对实证数据会带来更好的预测度；2) 居住地周边出行美学对步行出行有正向影响，工作地周边出行安全性对自行车出行有正向影响，工作地周边出行路况及工作地停车方便性的主观感知也会对出行方式带来显著影响；3) 对于通勤人员来说，工作地的建成环境主观感知较居住地对出行方式影响更显著。因此，为了促进公共交通通行和绿色健康方式出行，可提升出行者对于建成环境的积极感知，对出行者的出行方式选择行为进行干预和引导。

Abstract: The built environment is a significant factor influencing travel behavior. To explore whether travelers’ perceptions of the built environment affect their travel behavior, this study utilizes survey data on commuting behavior among Shanghai residents. The data captures residents’ subjective perceptions of the built environment at both their residential and workplace locations. Twelve latent variables were established, including travel safety, accessibility of surrounding facilities, public transport accessibility, travel conditions, travel aesthetics, and parking convenience at both residential and workplace locations. The study employs the Multinomial Logit Model (MNL) and the Hybrid Choice Model (HCM) with latent variables to estimate the impact of individuals’ socio-economic attributes and subjective perceptions of the built environment on travel mode choice. The results indicate that: 1) The HCM model has a higher goodness-of-fit coefficient compared to the MNL model, with an improvement rate of 10%, suggesting that the HCM model provides better predictive accuracy for empirical data; 2) Perceived travel aesthetics around the residential area positively influences walking, while perceived travel safety around the workplace positively influences cycling. Additionally, subjective perceptions of travel conditions and parking convenience at the workplace significantly impact travel mode choice; 3) For commuters, subjective perceptions of the built environment at the workplace have a more pronounced effect on travel mode choice than those at the residential location. Therefore, to promote the use of public transport and green, healthy travel modes, it is essential to enhance travelers’ positive perceptions of the built environment and guide their travel mode choice behavior through targeted interventions.