人均收入或消费支出在人均GDP与婴儿死亡率间的中介效应分析

Analysis of the Mediating Effect of Per Capita Income or Per Capita Consumption Expenditure between Per Capita GDP and Infant Mortality Rate

摘要: 本文基于世界银行数据库的更新数据，按高、中、低收入国家分组，以2000~2021年婴儿死亡率为因变量，人均GDP为自变量，分别以人均国民总收入、调整后的国民净人均收入、人均居民最终消费支出为中介变量，进行中介效应分析。结果表明，人均国民总收入、调整后的国民净人均收入在高收入国家发挥遮掩作用，人均居民最终消费支出在高收入国家中介作用不显著，3个变量在中收入国家均发挥部分中介作用，低收入国家因样本量偏小中介效应有待验证。探索人均GDP与婴儿死亡率之间的中间变量，对于制定、实施降低婴儿死亡率的干预措施，有一定的作用。建议将经济发展成果通过收入或消费支出途径惠及儿童健康，切实消除收入不平等，着力调整消费结构。

Abstract: This article is based on updated data from the World Bank database, grouped by high, medium, and low-income countries, with infant mortality rate from 2000 to 2021 as the dependent variable and per capita GDP as the independent variable, the mediating effects are analyzed using per capita gross national income, adjusted net per capita national income, and per capita final consumer expenditure as the mediating variables. The results indicate that per capita gross national income and adjusted net per capita national income play a masking role in high-income countries, while the mediating effect of per capita final consumption expenditure is not significant in high-income countries. All three variables play a partial mediating role in middle-income countries, while the mediating effect in low-income countries remains to be verified due to the small sample size. Exploring the intermediate variable between per capita GDP and infant mortality rate has a certain impact on implementing interventions to reduce infant mortality. It is suggested to benefit children’s health through income or consumption expenditure, effectively eliminate income inequality, and focus on adjusting the consumption structure.