管理层披露业绩预告的可能性和精确性——基于气候政策不确定性视角

Likelihood and Accuracy of Management Disclosure of Earnings Forecasts—Based on Climate Policy Uncertainty Perspective

摘要: 本文以A股上市公司为样本研究了气候政策不确定性对公司管理层披露业绩预告的可能性以及管理层披露业绩预告精确性的影响，研究发现：第一，气候政策的不确定性降低了披露业绩预告的可能性提高业绩预告披露的精确性；第二，气候政策的不确定性对业绩预告的正向影响在国有企业中相对于非国有企业更为明显，这些结果表明，气候政策不确定性降低了管理层披露业绩预告的可能性，是公司业绩变化，不能及时反应，同时气候政策的不确定性是管理层在披露业绩预告时持有更加谨慎的态度。我们的研究结果在一系列稳健性检验和控制内生性后仍然有效。国家应该关注气候政策不确定性对管理层披露业绩预告的影响。

Abstract: This paper takes A-share listed companies as samples to study the impact of climate policy uncertainty on the possibility of company management to disclose performance forecasts and the accuracy of management disclosure of performance forecasts. The findings are as follows: First, climate policy uncertainty reduces the possibility of disclosure of performance forecasts and improves the accuracy of disclosure of performance forecasts; Second, the positive impact of climate policy uncertainty on performance forecast is more obvious in state-owned enterprises than in non-state-owned enterprises. These results show that climate policy uncertainty reduces the possibility of management to disclose performance forecast, which is because the company’s performance changes and cannot respond in time. At the same time, the uncertainty of climate policy causes management to be more cautious when disclosing performance forecast. Our results persisted after a series of robust tests and control for endogeneity. Countries should pay attention to the impact of climate policy uncertainty on management disclosure of performance forecasts.