基于动态价格因素下的新疆布鲁氏菌病最优控制策略研究

Research on Optimal Brucellosis Control Strategy in Xinjiang Based on Dynamic Price Factors

摘要: 近年来，新疆地区动物感染布鲁氏菌病的发病率以及新发人间病例呈持续上升趋势，这不仅对畜牧业发展构成了显著影响，而且给公共卫生安全带来了严峻挑战。因此，加强布鲁氏菌病风险评估与防控工作，对于保障畜牧业的可持续发展具有关键意义。然而畜牧业的发展不仅受到动物疫病因素的影响，市场价格与供需关系等经济因素同样发挥重要作用。基于上述背景，本文将市场价格因素与布鲁氏菌病传播特点相结合，建立了受动态价格影响的布鲁氏菌病传播动力学模型。首先对此模型的无病平衡点及基本再生数进行了求解和验证。其次通过对传染病模型施加三种控制措施，并以实现最小传染规模和最低防控成本为目标，构建了目标函数。最后在数值模拟中，选取新疆维吾尔自治区2011至2023年的活羊出栏价格数据以及人间布鲁氏菌病病例数，对模型进行参数估计，验证了其合理性。同时，通过参数敏感性分析和数值实验，得出结论：在保持牲畜种群规模不扩张的前提下，选择出栏牲畜的策略有利于传染病的控制；而当三种控制策略联合施行时，实现疾病防控效果最优并且疾病控制成本最低。

Abstract: In recent years, the incidence of brucellosis infection in animals and new human cases in Xinjiang has been steadily increasing, which not only has a significant impact on the development of animal husbandry, but also poses a serious challenge to public health safety. Therefore, strengthening the risk assessment, prevention and control of brucellosis is essential to ensure the sustainable development of animal husbandry. However, the development of animal husbandry is not only influenced by animal diseases, but also by economic factors such as market prices and supply and demand relations, which also play an important role. Based on the above background, this paper combines the market price factor with the characteristics of brucellosis transmission and establishes a model of brucellosis transmission dynamics affected by dynamic price. Firstly, the disease-free equilibrium point and the basic regeneration number of this model are solved and verified. Secondly, an objective function was constructed by imposing three control measures on the transmission model and aiming to achieve the minimum level of transmission and the minimum cost of prevention and control. Finally, in the numerical simulation, the live sheep slaughter price data from 2011 to 2023 and the number of human brucellosis cases in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region were selected to estimate the parameters of the model and verify its reasonableness. At the same time, through parameter sensitivity analysis and numerical experiments, it was concluded that the strategy of choosing livestock selling is conducive to the control of infectious diseases under the premise that the size of the livestock population does not increase; and when the three control strategies are implemented together, the optimal effect of disease prevention and control and the lowest cost of disease control can be achieved.