哈萨克斯坦对RCEP成员国农产品出口贸易的竞争性、互补性及二元边际分析

Analysis of Competitiveness, Complementarity, and Dual Margins of Kazakhstan’s Agricultural Exports to RCEP Member Countries

摘要: 本研究聚焦哈萨克斯坦对《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)成员国的农产品出口贸易，旨在从竞争性、互补性以及二元边际的视角探讨其贸易特征与发展潜力。本文结合2013年至2023年间的贸易数据，研究发现，哈萨克斯坦在RCEP国家农产品贸易中表现出较强的竞争性，其TC指数长期保持在正值区间，表明具有一定的比较优势。而RCA指数显示哈萨克斯坦在部分年份竞争力有所波动，但总体上仍保持国际竞争力。TCI指数分析则表明，哈萨克斯坦与RCEP成员国之间的农产品贸易互补性显著，尤其是在与中国、印度尼西亚等国的贸易中，表现出较高的结构匹配程度。在二元边际分析中，哈萨克斯坦对RCEP国家农产品出口的扩展边际和集约边际均呈现增长趋势，表明其通过多元化的产品种类和深化现有产品市场占有率，显著增强了贸易活力。然而，部分国家的扩展边际增长放缓或集约边际出现波动，可能受到市场需求变化和政策壁垒的影响。研究的创新点在于结合竞争性、互补性和二元边际三个维度，全面评估哈萨克斯坦对RCEP国家农产品出口贸易的动态特征。本研究不仅丰富了农产品贸易领域的理论研究，还为哈萨克斯坦提升农产品出口竞争力、融入RCEP经济圈提供了科学依据和实践指导。

Abstract: This study focuses on Kazakhstan’s agricultural export trade to member countries of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), aiming to explore its trade characteristics and development potential from the perspectives of competitiveness, complementarity, and binary margins. This article combines trade data from 2013 to 2023 and finds that Kazakhstan exhibits strong competitiveness in agricultural trade among RCEP countries, with its TC index remaining in the positive range for a long time, indicating a certain comparative advantage. The RCA index shows that Kazakhstan’s competitiveness has fluctuated in some years, but overall it still maintains international competitiveness. The TCI index analysis shows that there is significant complementarity in agricultural trade between Kazakhstan and RCEP member countries, especially in trade with countries such as China and Indonesia, showing a high degree of structural matching. In the binary marginal analysis, Kazakhstan’s expansion and intensification margins of agricultural exports to RCEP countries show an increasing trend, indicating that it has significantly enhanced trade vitality through diversified product types and deepening existing product market share. However, in some countries, the expansion margin growth slows down or the intensification margin fluctuates, which may be affected by changes in market demand and policy barriers. The innovation of the research lies in comprehensively evaluating the dynamic characteristics of Kazakhstan’s agricultural export trade to RCEP countries by combining three dimensions: competitiveness, complementarity, and binary margins. This study not only enriches the theoretical research in the field of agricultural trade, but also provides scientific basis and practical guidance for Kazakhstan to enhance its agricultural export competitiveness and integrate into the RCEP economic circle.