金融科技对商业银行信用风险的影响——基于KMV模型的实证分析

The Impact of Fintech on the Credit Risk of Commercial Banks—An Empirical Analysis Based on the KMV Model

摘要: 随着金融科技的快速发展，商业银行的业务的运作方式和风险格局发生了深刻的改变，如何平衡金融科技发展与资本风险管理是银行和监管机构面临的新问题。本文利用2013~2022年A股24家上市商业银行的数据进行实证研究，并使用KMV模型计算银行的预期违约率，研究金融科技在商业银行信用风险中的作用及其影响机制。研究发现：金融科技能够改善商业银行的信用风险，对不同类型商业银行的影响存在异质性；信贷规模在金融科技发展对商业银行信用的影响中存在中介效应。结论对银行如何降低信用风险有一定参考意义。

Abstract: With the rapid development of fintech, the business operation mode and risk pattern of commercial banks have undergone profound changes, and how to balance the development of fintech and capital risk management is a new problem faced by banks and regulators. This paper uses the data of 24 A-share listed commercial banks from 2013 to 2022 to conduct an empirical study, and uses the KMV model to calculate the expected default rate of banks, and studies the role and impact mechanism of fintech in the credit risk of commercial banks. The results show that fintech can improve the credit risk of commercial banks, but the impact on different types of commercial banks is heterogeneous. There is an intermediary effect in the impact of fintech development on the credit of commercial banks. The conclusion has certain reference significance for how banks can reduce credit risk.