数字普惠金融对我国居民储蓄率的影响分析

Research on the Impact of Digital Inclusive Finance on Household Savings Rate in China

摘要: 自改革开放以来，我国居民储蓄率一直呈现出快速上升的趋势，但受新冠肺炎疫情等因素的影响，经济消费恢复较慢。随着数字金融的发展，其对于降低居民储蓄率、释放居民消费的重要性日益显现，也引起了学界和业界的众多关注。文章基于2011~2020年区间31个省份的面板数据，采用PVAR模型探究数字普惠金融与居民储蓄率之间的关系，研究结果表明，数字普惠金融的冲击能够在短期促进居民消费、降低储蓄率。且数字普惠金融主要通过数字金融覆盖广度、数字金融使用深度两个途径降低居民储蓄率。

Abstract: Since the reform and opening-up, China’s household savings rate has shown a rapid upward trend. However, influenced by factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the recovery of economic consumption has been slow. With the development of digital finance, its importance in reducing the household savings rate and unleashing household consumption has become increasingly evident, attracting significant attention from both academia and industry. This article utilizes panel data from 31 provinces spanning the years 2011 to 2020 and employs a PVAR (Panel Vector Autoregression) model to explore the relationship between digital inclusive finance and the household savings rate. The research findings indicate that shocks from digital inclusive finance can promote household consumption and reduce the savings rate in the short term. Moreover, digital inclusive finance primarily reduces the household savings rate through two channels: the breadth of digital finance coverage and the depth of digital finance usage.