京津冀地区耕地非粮化的时空格局演变研究

Spatiotemporal Pattern Evolution of Cultivated Land Non-Grain Conversion in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

摘要: 目的：本文旨在为京津冀地区耕地的科学运用及粮食安全防线的筑牢给予有力支撑。方法：对2010~2022年京津冀地区的耕地非粮化状况进行了测度，并基于泰尔指数和空间自相关方法研究了耕地非粮化时空演变特征。结果：结果显示时间上呈现出耕地非粮化程度先快速上升、后增速放缓但仍持续增加、近期趋于平稳的变化趋势。空间上，非粮化不平等程度加深，组内不平等是主因；北京、天津非粮化程度高且上升，河北地区整体较低但近京津区域较高且向内陆蔓延；非粮化存在空间集聚性，重心向东北部迁移。结论：京津冀地区耕地非粮化受城市发展、经济结构调整等多种因素影响，需深入研究各因素作用机制，制定针对性政策保障耕地利用与粮食安全，以促进粮食系统可持续发展。

Abstract: Objective: The purpose of this paper is to provide strong support for the scientific utilization of cultivated land and the reinforcement of the food security line in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Method: The non-grain use status of cultivated land in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2010 to 2022 was measured, and the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of non-grain use of cultivated land were studied based on the Theil index and spatial autocorrelation method. Result: The results show that the degree of non-grain use of cultivated land increased rapidly at first, then the growth rate slowed down but still continued to increase, and recently tended to be stable over time. Spatially, the inequality of non-grain use deepened, with intra-group inequality being the main cause; the degree of non-grain use in Beijing and Tianjin was high and continued to rise, while the overall degree in Hebei was relatively low but high in the areas near Beijing and Tianjin and was spreading towards the inland. Non-grain use of cultivated land showed spatial agglomeration, with the center of gravity moving towards the northeast. Conclusion: The non-grain use of cultivated land in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is influenced by multiple factors such as urban development and economic structure adjustment. It is necessary to deeply study the mechanism of action of each factor and formulate targeted policies to ensure the utilization of cultivated land and food security, so as to promote the sustainable development of the food system.