凯里市暴雨天气特征和“三个叫应”阈值研究

Study on the Characteristics of Rainstorm Weather and the “Three Major Call and Response Mechanisms” Threshold in Kaili City

摘要: 目的：旨在减轻暴雨诱发的山洪、城市内涝及地质灾害对凯里市的影响，更好地服务于地方政府和本地人民群众民生福祉。方法：基于2012至2022年凯里国家气象站及所辖34个地面自动站的小时降水数据，采用统计分析手段探究凯里市暴雨特性，并结合应急管理局的灾情数据，探索“三个叫应”机制的阈值设定。结果：凯里市年均暴雨站点数为80.6站，年均暴雨天数达14.8天；其中，6月暴雨天数最多，共计38天，占比23.9%，且该月暴雨站点数达到峰值261站；暴雨事件在时间及空间分布上呈现显著的不连续性。结论：结合暴雨特征与灾情数据，采用百分位法优化本地“三个叫应”阈值标准。经2024年暴雨事件的实践检验，修订后的标准在应急响应与资源调度中展现出更高的实用性和指导价值。

Abstract: The purpose of this study is to effectively reduce the adverse impacts of secondary disasters, such as flash floods, urban waterlogging, and geological hazards caused by rainstorm, and to better serve local governments and residents in Kaili City. By using hourly precipitation data from the Kaili National Basic Meteorological Station and 34 ground-based automatic meteorological observation stations from 2012 to 2022, statistical analysis was conducted on the characteristics of rainstorm in Kaili City. Combined with heavy rainfall disaster data provided by the Kaili Emergency Management Bureau, the study investigates the “Three Major Call and Response Mechanisms” threshold. The results show that the number of average annual rainstorm stations in Kaili City is 80.6, with an average of 14.8 heavy rain days. During the statistical period, June had the highest number of rainstorm days, with 38 days, accounting for 23.9%. The peak monthly rainstorm station count also occurred in June, reaching 261 stations. There were obvious temporal and spatial discontinuities in the number of rainstorm days and the maximum daily rainfall. By combining rainstorm weather characteristics with disaster data, the local “Three Major Call and Response Mechanisms” thresholds were revised using the percentile method. The revised thresholds were applied to test the rainstorm weather processes in 2024. The revised “Three Major Call and Response Mechanisms” standards are more objective and practical for local emergency calls and coordination work.