绿色建筑设计对区域碳排放的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Green Building Design on Regional Carbon Emissions

摘要: 随着全球气候变化问题的加剧，建筑行业作为碳排放的重要源头，其绿色转型对实现碳减排目标具有重要意义。在此背景下，本文在理论和实证两个方面探讨绿色建筑设计对区域碳排放的影响。理论分析方面通过梳理相关文献，探讨了绿色建筑设计在项目的设计阶段、施工阶段和运营阶段对区域碳排放的影响，并在此基础上提出本文的研究假设。研究采用时间个体双固定效应模型，利用2011~2022年中国30个省份的面板数据进行分析，以此验证理论分析提出的假设。通过实证分析得到以下结论：第一，绿色建筑设计显著降低了区域碳排放量。第二，绿色建筑设计对区域碳排放的影响存在中介效应，具体表现为绿色建筑设计通过提高研发强度间接抑制区域碳排放。第三，环境规制对绿色建筑设计的碳减排作用具有调节效应。第四，绿色建筑设计对区域碳排放的影响存在显著的区域异质性。相较于中西部地区，东部地区的绿色建筑设计减排效果更为显著。

Abstract: As global climate change issues intensify, the construction industry, as a significant source of carbon emissions, plays a crucial role in achieving carbon reduction targets through its green transformation. Against this backdrop, this paper explores the impact of green building design on regional carbon emissions from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Theoretical analysis involves reviewing relevant literature to examine how green building design influences regional carbon emissions during the project design phase, construction phase, and operation phase, based on which the research hypotheses of this paper are proposed. The study adopts a time-individual dual fixed effect model, analyzing panel data from 30 provinces in China between 2011 and 2022 to verify the hypotheses proposed by the theoretical analysis. The empirical analysis draws the following conclusions: First, green building design significantly reduces regional carbon emissions. Second, the impact of green building design on regional carbon emissions includes a mediating effect specifically manifested as green building design indirectly curbs regional carbon emissions by increasing R&D intensity. Third, environmental regulations have a moderating effect on the carbon emission reduction role of green building design. Fourth, there is a significant regional heterogeneity in the impact of green building design on regional carbon emissions. Compared with central and western regions, the emission reduction effect of green building design in eastern regions is more significant.