城乡劳动生产力是否走向趋同——基于中国31个省际面板数据

Whether Urban-Rural Labor Productivity Is Converging—Evidence from Provincial Panel Data of 31 Chinese Provinces

摘要: 本文基于2000~2021年中国31个省际面板数据，采用柯布–道格拉斯生产函数测算三次产业劳动力边际生产力。研究发现，我国城乡劳动力边际生产力差距呈倒“U”型关系。数据包络分析进一步揭示，城乡生产力差距主要源于技术进步和资本深化程度差异。但边际报酬递减规律导致第一、二产业资本深化对劳动生产率的贡献下降，促使城乡劳动力边际生产力差距缩小。为进一步推动城乡劳动力生产力趋同和城乡经济一体化，本文建议：深化市场化改革，促进要素双向流动；强化农业现代化支撑，提升内生增长动力；加大农村人力资本投资，培育均衡发展基础。

Abstract: This paper utilizes panel data from 31 Chinese provinces spanning the years 2000 to 2021 and employs the Cobb-Douglas production function to measure the marginal productivity of labor across the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries. The study finds that the urban-rural gap in marginal labor productivity in China exhibits an inverted “U”-shaped relationship. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) further reveals that the urban-rural productivity gap primarily stems from differences in technological progress and the degree of capital deepening. However, the law of diminishing marginal returns has led to a decline in the contribution of capital deepening to labor productivity in the primary and secondary industries, thereby promoting the narrowing of the urban-rural marginal labor productivity gap. To further advance the convergence of urban-rural labor productivity and urban-rural economic integration, this paper proposes the following recommendations: deepen market-oriented reforms to facilitate the bidirectional flow of production factors; strengthen support for agricultural modernization to enhance endogenous growth drivers; and increase investment in rural human capital to build a foundation for balanced development.