台江县1959~2023年降水时间序列变化特征

Characteristics of Precipitation Time Series Changes in Taijiang County from 1959 to 2023

摘要: 本研究基于1959~2023年台江国家基本气象站的降水资料，采用趋势分析和M-K突变检验法对台江县的降水时间序列资料进行了深入分析。结果显示，台江县年降水量波动性大，总体呈略增多趋势，21世纪10年代降水量显著上升。从四季降水量来分析，除秋季降水量呈减少趋势外，春、夏和冬季均呈增多趋势，降水主要集中在夏季，在1969~1975年间发生了由少到多的突变。暴雨日数和最大日降水量也均呈增加趋势，表明台江县降水强度上升，极端性增强。这些变化与全球变暖密切相关，对当地水资源管理、农业规划和灾害预警等带来了挑战。未来，需加强气候监测和预警系统建设，提升应对极端天气事件的能力。

Abstract: This study is based on precipitation data from the Taijiang National Basic Meteorological Station from 1959 to 2023. Trend analysis and M-K mutation test were used to conduct in-depth analysis of precipitation time series data in Taijiang County. The results show that the annual precipitation in Taijiang County fluctuates greatly, showing a slight increasing trend overall, with a significant increase in precipitation in the 2010s. From the perspective of seasonal precipitation, except for a decreasing trend in autumn, there is an increasing trend in spring, summer, and winter. Precipitation is mainly concentrated in summer, with a sudden change from less to more occurring between 1969 and 1975. The number of rainstorm days and the maximum daily precipitation also showed an increasing trend, indicating that the precipitation intensity in Taijiang County increased, and the extremes increased. These changes are closely related to global warming and pose challenges to local water resource management, agricultural planning, and disaster warning. In the future, it is necessary to strengthen the construction of climate monitoring and early warning systems, and enhance the ability to respond to extreme weather events.