基于BP-ARIMA模型的空气质量监测研究——以湘西自治州为例

Research on Air Quality Monitoring Based on BP-ARIMA Model—A Case Study of Xiangxi Autonomous Prefecture

摘要: 随着现代化进程的不断加速，空气质量问题日益严重。空气污染对生态环境、人类健康以及社会经济造成了严重影响，因此，加强空气质量预测预警至关重要。本研究从数据分析的视角出发，建立BP-ARIMA混合模型预测湘西自治州未来一年内的PM2.5浓度和AQI指数，结果显示未来空气质量将在良好到中度污染之间波动，进而提出四大预警措施，从政府、公众、企业、科研方面给出建议，助力空气污染控制和环保效益提升。

Abstract: With the continuous acceleration of modernization, the problem of air quality is becoming increasingly serious. Air pollution has caused severe impacts on the ecological environment, human health and the social economy. Therefore, it is crucial to enhance the prediction and early warning of air quality. This study, from the perspective of data analysis, establishes a BP-ARIMA hybrid model to predict the PM2.5 concentration and AQI index in Xiangxi Autonomous Prefecture for the next year. The results show that the air quality in the future will fluctuate between good and moderate pollution. Subsequently, four major early warning measures are proposed, providing suggestions from the aspects of government, public, enterprises and scientific research to assist in air pollution control and the improvement of environmental protection benefits.