数字经济对农村电商发展的影响效应研究

The Effect of the Digital Economy on the Development of Rural E-Commerce

摘要: 本文基于2011~2022年中国省级面板数据，结合熵值法测算我国省域数字经济发展水平和电商发展水平，运用双重固定效应模型，实证分析数字经济对农村电商发展水平的影响效应及作用机制。研究发现：(1) 数字经济对农村电商的发展具有积极的促进作用，经过样本缩尾处理、替换测算方法、使用截面数据的稳健性检验以及核心解释变量滞后一期的内生性检验后，该结论依然成立。(2) 人力资本效应和科技创新效应在数字经济促进农村电商发展的作用路径中，构成了重要的中介传导渠道。因此，提出强化数字基建与技术创新双轮驱动，释放协同效应；构建多层次人力资本培育体系，激发内生动力的建议。

Abstract: Utilizing multi-year provincial-level datasets (2011~2022) from China, this research applies the entropy weighting method to evaluate the developmental trajectories of the digital economy and cross-regional e-commerce dynamics. Using a two-way fixed effects model, it empirically analyzes the impact mechanisms of the digital economy on rural e-commerce development. The findings reveal that: (1) The digital economy demonstrates a positive and significant promoting effect on rural e-commerce growth. This conclusion remains robust after implementing winsorized sample treatment, alternative measurement approaches, cross-sectional data verification, and endogeneity tests using first-period lagged core explanatory variables. (2) Human capital accumulation and technological innovation capabilities serve as critical mediating transmission channels through which the digital economy facilitates rural e-commerce advancement. Accordingly, the proposed recommendations include establishing a dual-drive mechanism integrating digital infrastructure enhancement with technological innovation to amplify synergistic effects, and constructing a multi-tiered human capital cultivation system to stimulate endogenous development momentum.