基于非齐次泊松过程的新疆地震发生预测研究

Research on the Prediction of Earthquake Occurrence in Xinjiang Based on Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process

摘要: 本研究针对地震灾害的随机性与时变性特征，提出基于非齐次泊松过程(NHPP)与复合非齐次泊松过程(CNHPP)的地震预测建模框架。以新疆地区2012~2021年地震观测数据为基准，构建地震发生频率与经济损失的联合预测模型。实证结果显示：模型对2024年地震频次的预测期望值为213次(标准差14.63)，经济损失的期望值达287,819元(标准差19,679)。研究成果不仅揭示了地震风险的时空异质性与地震频次、造成经济损失的动态变化关系，更为区域地震应急资源的动态调度与韧性城市的建设提供了量化决策工具。

Abstract: This study proposes a seismic prediction modeling framework based on the non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) and the compound non-homogeneous Poisson process (CNHPP) in response to the stochastic and time-varying characteristics of earthquake disasters. Taking the seismic observation data of Xinjiang region from 2012 to 2021 as the benchmark, a joint prediction model of earthquake occurrence frequency and economic loss is constructed. Empirical results show that the expected value of the predicted number of earthquakes in 2024 is 213 (standard deviation 14.63), and the expected value of economic loss is 287,819 yuan (standard deviation 19,679). The research results not only reveal the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of earthquake risks and the dynamic changes in earthquake frequency and economic losses caused, but also provide a quantitative decision-making tool for the dynamic scheduling of regional earthquake emergency resources and the construction of resilient cities.