气候变暖背景下第二松花江流域干旱特征及敏感性分析
Drought Characteristics and Sensitivity Analysis of the Second Songhua River Basin in the Context of Climate Warming
DOI: 10.12677/jwrr.2025.142019, PDF,    科研立项经费支持
作者: 肖 恒, 安志甲*, 苏慧茹：华北水利水电大学环境与市政工程学院，河南 郑州；孙 虹：吉林省水文水资源局(吉林省水环境监测中心)，吉林 长春
关键词: VIC模型；土壤含水量距平指数(SMAPI)；干旱特征；敏感性；VIC Model； Soil Moisture Anomaly Percentage Index (SMAPI)； Drought Characteristics； Sensitivity
摘要: 干旱是影响农业生产和水资源的重要灾害，随着气候变化的加剧，发生干旱的频率和强度也有所增加，对生态环境和社会经济造成了严重的影响。本文以第二松花江流域为研究区域，利用SMAPI指数，分析了流域的干旱特征及其对气候变化的敏感性。主要结论如下：1) VIC模型能够较好地模拟流域流量，验证了模型的适用性。2) SMAPI作为干旱指标，能够反映流域实际干旱的发生和特征，能够较好地重现历史干旱情形。3) 流域历史干旱事件的特征随时间变化在空间格局上有不同程度的变化，且随着干旱面积的增加，干旱强度总体呈增加趋势。4) 干旱历时、干旱强度、干旱面积随降水增加而减少，而干旱场次则在−30%~0%之间随降水增加而增加。本文的研究结果对于深入认识气候变化背景下第二松花江流域历史旱情的演变特征和增强流域抗旱能力具有一定的实用价值。
Abstract: Drought is an important hazard affecting agricultural production and water resources. With the intensification of climate change, the frequency and intensity of drought have increased, causing serious impacts on the ecological environment and socio-economy. In this paper, the drought characteristics of the basin and its sensitivity to climate change were analysed using the SMAPI index with the Second Songhua River Basin as the study area. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) The VIC model can better simulate the flow of the basin, which verifies the applicability of the model. 2) SMAPI as a drought index can reflect the occurrence and characteristics of actual drought in the basin, and can better reproduce the ephemeral drought situation. 3) The characteristics of historical drought events in the basin changed with time to varying degrees in the spatial pattern, and the overall drought intensity showed an increasing trend with the increase of drought area. 4) The drought duration, drought intensity and drought area decreased with the increase of precipitation, while the drought frequency increased with the increase of precipitation between −30% and 0%. The results of this paper are of practical value in understanding the evolutionary characteristics of historical drought in the Second Songhua River Basin in climate change context and in enhancing the drought resilience of the basin.
文章引用：肖恒, 安志甲, 孙虹, 苏慧茹. 气候变暖背景下第二松花江流域干旱特征及敏感性分析[J]. 水资源研究, 2025, 14(2): 184-193. https://doi.org/10.12677/jwrr.2025.142019

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