赤峰市冬季气温变化分析

Analysis of Winter Temperature Variations in Chifeng City

摘要: 在全球气候变化背景下，区域气候响应特征备受关注，尤其是中高纬度地区冬季气候变化特征。文章以赤峰市为研究区，着重对冬季气温和年均温时空变化特征进行对比分析，结果发现，1961~2021年年均温呈现极显著上升趋势，冬季气温上升趋势不显著，说明该区域冬季增温贡献不显著；低海拔冬季气温响应特征明显，增温趋势显著。1993年年均温气温发生显著的突变，冬季增温突变年份为1979年，与年均温相比，冬季增温突变敏感。年均温和冬季气温均表现为年际周期变化明显的特征。年均温和冬季气温空间变化均表现为由东南向西北递减的特征，主要与纬度和海拔因素有关。

Abstract: Under global climate change, understanding the characteristics of regional climate responses has emerged as a focal point of scientific inquiry, particularly regarding the climatic changes during winter in mid-high latitude regions. This study takes Chifeng City as its research domain, conducting an in-depth comparative analysis of the spatiotemporal variation patterns of winter temperatures and annual mean temperatures. The findings reveal that from 1961 to 2021, the annual mean temperature has demonstrated an extremely significant upward trend. In contrast, the increase in winter temperatures has not reached statistical significance, suggesting that winter warming has made a relatively minor contribution to the overall temperature rise in this area. Notably, winter temperatures at lower altitudes exhibit a more pronounced response, with a significant warming trend. A significant abrupt change in the annual mean temperature was detected in 1993, while the year of abrupt change for winter warming was identified as 1979. Demonstrating higher sensitivity to abrupt warming in winter compared to annual means. Both annual and winter temperatures exhibited clear interannual cyclical variations. Spatially, temperatures decreased from southeast to northwest for both annual and winter means, primarily associated with latitude and elevation factor.