基于MaxEnt模型预测中药材钩藤潜在适生区

Prediction of Potential Suitable Habitats for the Medicinal Herb Uncaria rhynchophylla Using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) Model

摘要: 钩藤(Uncaria rhynchophylla)是一味重要的中药材，具有重要的药用价值和经济价值。由于野生资源破坏严重、全球气候变化等问题，钩藤的产量和质量不能完全满足市场对优质药材的需求。为促进钩藤资源的保护和可持续利用，本研究通过MaxEnt软件与ArcGIS软件对钩藤在不同气候条件下全国范围内的适宜生境进行预测。结果表明，bio_17 (Driest quarterly precipitation)、bio_12 (Precipitation of wettest month)、elev (海拔高度)是影响钩藤分布的关键变量。当前气候情景下，钩藤主要在20˚N~35˚N和105˚E~120˚E分布，总适生区面积(包括中适生区和高适生区)为110.9 × 10⁴ km²。未来钩藤的适宜栖息地将向高纬度地区迁移，SSP126情景下，其适宜生境逐渐增加；SSP585情景下，其适宜生境也逐渐增加。研究结果将为钩藤的种植规划、土地资源管理和应对气候变化提供参考。

Abstract: Uncaria rhynchophylla (Miq.) Miq. ex Havil is an important Chinese medicinal herb with significant pharmacological and economic value. Its production and quality face challenges in meeting market demands for high-quality materials due to the severe depletion of wild resources and global climate change. To support its conservation and sustainable utilization, this study employed the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model integrated with ArcGIS to predict its potential suitable habitats across China under varying climatic conditions. The results showed that key environmental variables influencing its distribution were identified as bio_17 (Driest quarterly precipitation), bio_12 (Precipitation of wettest month), and elev (elevation). Under current climatic scenarios, U. rhynchophylla is mainly distributed in 20˚N~35˚N and 105˚E~120˚E, with a total suitable habitat area (including moderately and highly suitable zones) of 1.109 × 10⁶ km². In the future, the suitable habitat of U. rhynchophylla will migrate to higher latitudes, with a gradual increase in the suitable habitats under both SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios. These findings provide a reference for cultivation planning, land resource management, and climate change adaptation strategies for U. rhynchophylla.