集成电路贸易网络脆弱性测度及影响因素分析

Vulnerability Measurement and Influencing Factors Analysis of IC Trade Network

摘要: 作为高技术产业的重要部分，集成电路是培育战略性新兴产业的重要支撑，具有基础性和先导性，研究全球集成电路产业贸易网络脆弱性及其影响因素对保障未来集成电路供需安全具有重要意义。本文选取2000~2022年相应数据，构建集成电路产业的制造设备、制造材料以及制成器件3个主要环节的贸易子网，从网络集聚性、传输性、层级性和关联性对网络脆弱性进行测度，并采用QAP分析法对集成电路全球贸易网络稳定形成的影响因素进行实证分析。结论表明：① 制造设备贸易网络的结构脆弱性位居榜首，制造材料脆弱性居中，制成器件网络结构稳定性最高，脆弱性最低。② 经济发展规模、对外开放程度和科技创新能力差距对集成电路产品贸易有促进作用；集成电路产品贸易通常和邻接国签订贸易协定，有殖民关系以及制度规定和市场规模差距较小的国家联系更加紧密。

Abstract: As an important part of high-tech industry, IC is an important support for cultivating strategic emerging industries, which is fundamental and guiding. Studying the vulnerability of global IC industry trade network and its influencing factors is of great significance to ensure the security of IC supply and demand in the future. This paper selects the corresponding data from 2000 to 2022 to construct the trade subnet of the three main links of the IC industry, namely manufacturing equipment, manufacturing materials and manufactured devices, and measures the network vulnerability from the perspective of network agglomeration, transmission, hierarchy and correlation. In addition, QAP analysis is used to empirically analyze the factors affecting the stable formation of the global IC trade network. The results show that: (1) The structural vulnerability of manufacturing equipment trade network ranks the first, the vulnerability of manufacturing materials is in the middle, the structural stability of manufactured device network is the highest, and the vulnerability is the lowest. (2) The economic development scale, the degree of opening up to the outside world and the gap in scientific and technological innovation ability have a promoting effect on the trade of integrated circuit products; The trade of IC products is usually more closely related to neighboring countries, countries with trade agreements, colonial relations, and institutional regulations and small gaps in market size.