被高估的“领袖”：基于网络舆情案例数据分析的群体意见演化研究

The Overestimated “Leaders”: A Study on the Evolution of Group Opinions Based on the Data Analysis of Online Public Opinion Cases

摘要: 目的/意义：网络舆情事件的发酵过程中有大量意见领袖和普通网民的参与，但是两者的互动关系尚未得到深入的分析。本研究揭示意见领袖和普通网民在互联网舆情里的关系。方法/过程：使用微博社交媒体平台“胖猫”事件进行案例分析，采集5月2日~5月28日相关事件微博文本数据；通过BERTopic模型对文本内容进行主题建模；利用百度情感分析API对文本进行情感计算；将信息发布者划分为不同主体；最后，从主题、情感和不同主体三个维度分析不同主体在舆情事件里的关系。结果：研究结果表明，在舆情关注度层面，意见领袖多聚焦事件新动态和性别议题，而普通网民更倾向于对事件进行感悟与反思。从主题情绪分布来看，在事件感悟与反思议题上，普通网民的情绪较意见领袖更为消极；而在男女性别议题中，意见领袖的情绪较普通网民更为消极。情感分析显示，意见领袖的正向发声，未能有效提升普通网民的正向情感占比。结论：根据舆情主题关注度、情感以及主题情绪分布呈现出的差异性来看，意见领袖对普通网民的影响相对有限。

Abstract: Purpose/Meaning: During the fermentation process of online public opinion events, there is extensive participation from both opinion leaders and ordinary netizens. However, the interactive relationship between these two groups has not yet been thoroughly analyzed. This study aims to reveal the relationship between opinion leaders and ordinary netizens in internet public opinion. Methods/Processes: Using the “Fat Cat” event on the Weibo social media platform as a case study, relevant event-related Weibo text data from May 2 to May 28 were collected. The BERTopic model was employed for thematic modeling of the text content, and the Baidu Sentiment Analysis API was utilized for sentiment computation of the text. The information publishers were categorized into different entities. Finally, the relationships between different entities in the public opinion event were analyzed from three dimensions: themes, sentiments, and different entities. Results: The results indicate that in terms of public opinion attention, opinion leaders tend to focus more on new developments of the event and gender issues, while ordinary netizens are more inclined to reflect on and contemplate the event. In terms of thematic sentiment distribution, ordinary netizens exhibit more negative emotions than opinion leaders in the theme of event reflection and contemplation, while opinion leaders show more negative emotions than ordinary netizens in the male-female gender theme. Sentiment analysis shows that the positive voices of opinion leaders have not effectively increased the proportion of positive sentiments among ordinary netizens. Conclusion: Based on the differences in thematic attention, sentiment, and thematic sentiment distribution, it can be concluded that the influence of opinion leaders on ordinary netizens is relatively limited.