数字经济对经济增长的影响机制和效应——基于行业层面的实证研究

The Impact Mechanism and Effects of the Digital Economy on Economic Growth—Empirical Research Based on Industry Level

摘要: 本文先从理论上梳理了数字经济对不同行业可能的影响机制和路径，再从数字经济发展环境、数字经济发展规模及数字经济发展效益三个方面构建数字经济综合指标体系，从未来潜力、现在规模和过去效益三方面去考察我国各地区的数字经济发展水平，并分析其时空发展特征。得到以下结论：第一，我国数字经济发展水平总体上呈现逐年上升趋势，且从地理位置看沿海地区数字经济发展水平最高。第二，互联网发展、数字金融发展通过数字经济对各个行业发展产生影响，并且互联网发展和数字金融通过数字经济对各个行业的影响程度相接近。第三，数字经济通过人力资本和R&D强度对各个行业产生影响；数字经济通过人力资本的间接影响在除金融业外对各个行业有显著的负向影响。

Abstract: This paper first theoretically analyzes the potential impact mechanisms and transmission pathways of the digital economy across different industries. We then construct a comprehensive indicator system for the digital economy from three dimensions: development environment, scale, and benefits, evaluating China’s regional digital economy development levels in terms of future potential, current scale, and past performance while examining their spatiotemporal evolution patterns. The findings reveal three key insights: (1) China’s digital economy has shown a consistent upward trend overall, with coastal regions demonstrating the highest development levels geographically; (2) Both internet development and digital finance affect various industries through the digital economy, with their impact magnitudes being remarkably similar; (3) The digital economy influences industries through human capital and R&D intensity channels, with its indirect effect via human capital exerting significantly negative impacts on all sectors except finance.