不确定性视角下现代化装配式建筑驱动新湖南绿色建设的协同机制研究

Research on the Collaborative Mechanism of Modern Prefabricated Buildings Driving Green Construction in New Hunan from the Perspective of Uncertainty

摘要: 在“双碳”目标与湖南省“三高四新”战略深入推进的背景下，现代化装配式建筑作为新湖南绿色建设的核心载体，面临技术迭代、成本波动、政策适配及极端气候等多重不确定性挑战。本研究基于不确定性理论与协同创新理论，构建“技术–产业–政策–市场”四维协同机制，系统解构湖南省装配式建筑绿色建设中的核心矛盾：技术层面存在湿热气候适配性不足、数字化转型滞后等风险，经济层面受限于全周期成本高与收益回报周期长，政策层面面临补贴退坡与标准体系滞后问题，环境与社会层面存在极端天气冲击及公众接受度偏低等困境。研究提出针对性协同路径：通过产学研用深度融合攻关本土化技术、打造“链主企业 + 专精特新”抗风险型产业链、设计弹性政策工具箱与市场化风险对冲工具、构建公众参与机制与人才储备体系，形成多主体联动的不确定性应对体系。研究表明，聚焦不确定性因素的协同机制构建，可有效提升装配式建筑绿色建设的系统韧性，为湖南省突破“技术适配难、成本控制难、政策协同难”瓶颈提供理论支撑与实践方案，助力实现建筑产业现代化与“双碳”目标的深度耦合。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of the in-depth advancement of the “Double Carbon” Goals and Hunan Province’s “Three Highs and Four New Strategies,” modern prefabricated buildings, as the core carrier of green construction in New Hunan, face multiple uncertainties such as technological iteration, cost fluctuations, policy adaptation, and extreme climate challenges. Based on uncertainty theory and collaborative innovation theory, this study constructs a “technology-industry-policy-market” four-dimensional collaborative mechanism to systematically deconstruct the core contradictions in Hunan’s prefabricated building green construction: at the technical level, there are risks such as insufficient adaptability to hot and humid climates and lagging digital transformation; at the economic level, it is constrained by high full-cycle costs and long return-on-investment periods; at the policy level, it faces the phasing out of subsidies and lagging standard systems; and at the environmental and social levels, it is confronted with dilemmas such as extreme weather impacts and low public acceptance. The study proposes targeted collaborative paths: through deepening the integration of industry, academia, research, and application to tackle localized technologies, building a risk-resistant industrial chain featuring “leading chain enterprises + specialized, refined, characteristic, and innovative firms”, designing flexible policy toolkits and market-based risk hedging instruments, and constructing public participation mechanisms and talent reserve systems, a multi-stakeholder uncertainty response system with coordinated actions is formed. The research shows that focusing on the construction of a collaborative mechanism for uncertain factors can effectively enhance the system resilience of prefabricated building green construction, provide theoretical support and practical solutions for Hunan to break through the bottlenecks of “difficult technical adaptation, difficult cost control, and difficult policy coordination”, and help achieve the deep coupling of construction industry modernization and the “Double Carbon” Goals.