社交媒体在新能源汽车领域的影响力研究——以Bilibili为例

The Influence of Social Media in the New Energy Vehicle Sector—A Case Study of Bilibili

摘要: 数字化浪潮下，社交媒体深刻重塑了消费者的信息获取与决策模式。而新能源汽车作为汽车行业的新兴力量，视频形式的社交媒体对其产生的影响越来越大。本文以视频网站Bilibili和蔚来汽车为研究对象，结合口碑传播理论和情绪传染理论探究视频网站及其平台信息对蔚来汽车销量的影响。本研究使用Python获取2018~2024年蔚来汽车相关视频数据以及视频下32万余条评论数据，结合中国汽车工业协会的销量数据展开分析，探讨社交媒体对汽车行业的影响。实证结果表明：1) 视频累计曝光度(即播放量)、用户互动参与度(即评论量)和情感认同指数(即点赞量)对汽车销量均有显著的正向影响且均为销量的不同滞后期的格兰杰原因，并且用户互动参与度的作用更为突出且持续时间更长；2) 在线评论的正负面情绪值对销量存在显著影响，正面情绪促进销量增长以及负面情绪抑制销量，且正面情绪的促进作用更强；3) 此外，本文借助LDA主题聚类算法对评论内容继续分析，“电池”、“企业”、“技术”等主题受关注度较高且所有主题负面情绪占比较大，其中“体验”、“电池”、“设计”主题的负面情绪值对销量产生了直接的负面影响，其中“体验”主题的负面情绪影响最大。

Abstract: Under the digital transformation, social media has profoundly reshaped consumer information acquisition and decision-making patterns. As an emerging force in the automotive industry, new energy vehicles (NEVs) are increasingly influenced by video-based social media platforms. This study focuses on the video-sharing platform Bilibili and the Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer NIO, integrating word-of-mouth communication theory and emotional contagion theory to investigate how platform-driven content impacts NIO’s sales. Utilizing Python, we collected data from NIO-related videos (2018~2024) and over 320,000 comment entries, combined with sales data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, to analyze the role of social media in the automotive sector. Key empirical findings include: 1) Cumulative video exposure (play counts), user interaction engagement (comment volume), and sentiment affinity indices (like counts) exhibit significant positive effects on sales, with all variables acting as Granger causes of sales across different lag periods. User interaction engagement demonstrates a more pronounced and enduring impact. 2) Sentiment polarity in online comments significantly influences sales: positive emotions drive growth, while negative emotions suppress demand, with positive sentiment exerting a stronger promotional effect. 3) Through LDA topic clustering analysis, high-attention themes such as “battery,” “corporate strategy,” and “technology” were identified. Notably, negative sentiment in “user experience,” “battery,” and “design” topics directly reduced sales, with “user experience” negativity having the largest adverse effect.