APEC成员国技术进步与碳排放分类研究与启示

Research and Implications on the Technological Progress and Carbon Emissions Classification of APEC Member Countries

摘要: 全球气候变化加剧、碳排放问题成为国际焦点，为探究技术进步在不同经济发展阶段国家碳减排中的作用机制，寻求有效的碳减排路径，本文以APEC组织中的17个国家2005~2022年的有关面板数据为基础，运用多种回归模型深入分析不同经济发展阶段国家技术进步对人均碳排放量的影响：从整体看，通电率、专利申请量等变量对人均碳排放有正向影响，ICT产品出口等变量则呈负向影响，其中人均GDP和人口密度的作用最为突出。分国家类型来看，高等收入国家中，通电率、高科技出口等变量显著正向影响人均碳排放；中高等收入国家里，通信技术产品出口、专利申请量等对人均碳排放的正向影响显著增强；中低等收入国家中，通信技术产品出口占比、移动网络用户占比呈正向影响，人均GDP却呈负向影响；中国的移动网络用户占比和人口密度对人均碳排放呈正向影响。最后基于研究结果，对各收入类型成员国制定差异化碳减排政策、推动全球碳减排进程提出相关建议。

Abstract: With the intensification of global climate change, the issue of carbon emissions has become an international focus. In order to explore the mechanism of technological progress in carbon emission reduction for countries at different stages of economic development and seek effective paths for carbon emission reduction, this paper, based on the relevant panel data of 17 countries within the APEC from 2005 to 2022, uses a variety of regression models to deeply analyze the impact of technological progress on per capita carbon emissions in countries at different economic development stages. Overall, variables such as the electricity access rate and the number of patent applications have a positive effect on per capita carbon emissions, while variables such as the export of ICT products have a negative effect. Among them, per capita GDP and population density play the most prominent roles. In terms of different types of countries, in high-income countries, variables such as the electricity access rate and high-tech exports have a significant positive impact on per capita carbon emissions. In upper-middle-income countries, the positive effects of variables such as the export of communication technology products and the number of patent applications on per capita carbon emissions are significantly enhanced. In lower-middle-income countries, the proportion of exports of communication technology products and mobile network users has a positive effect, while per capita GDP has a negative effect. In China, the proportion of mobile network users and the population density have a positive effect on per capita carbon emissions. Finally, based on the research results, relevant suggestions are put forward for member countries of different income types to formulate differentiated carbon emission reduction policies and to promote the global carbon emission reduction process.