基于GM(1,1)模型的我国农村电子商务交易额预测及发展路径研究

A Study on the Forecast of Rural E-Commerce Transaction Volume and Development Path in China Based on the GM(1,1) Model

摘要: 本文以我国农村电子商务交易额为研究对象，基于2016~2022年统计数据，运用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)对未来十年发展趋势进行预测。实证结果显示，模型精度等级为一级(后验差比C = 0.28875，小误差概率P = 1)，预测2032年农村电商交易额将突破6万亿元，年均增长率达15.6%。结合政策环境与产业现状，提出完善物流网络、优化数字基础设施、加强农产品品牌建设等策略，为乡村振兴背景下农村电商的可持续发展提供决策支持。

Abstract: This study takes the transaction volume of rural e-commerce in China as its research object. Based on statistical data from 2016 to 2022, the grey prediction model GM(1,1) is employed to forecast development trends over the next decade. Empirical results demonstrate that the model achieves first-grade precision (posteriori error ratio C = 0.28875, small error probability P = 1), predicting that rural e-commerce transactions will exceed 6 trillion yuan by 2032, with an annual growth rate of 15.6%. Considering the policy environment and industrial status quo, strategic recommendations are proposed including improving logistics networks, optimizing digital infrastructure, and strengthening brand building of agricultural products. These recommendations offer strategic guidance for advancing sustainable rural e-commerce development within the framework of rural revitalization initiatives.