对一类猴痘模型的最优控制

Optimal Control of One Kind of Mpox Model

摘要: 作为一类以动物宿主接触及性传播为主要途径的病毒性传染病，猴痘在2022~2023年全球范围内呈现出突发性与快速传播特征。本研究聚焦于无动物宿主输入的国家中，女性与男性患者感染特征的异质性，进而构建性别分组的SEIR动力学模型以解析病毒传播动态。通过引入庞特里亚金极大值原理(Pontryagin’s maximum principle)，系统推导了模型的最优控制策略。基于美国疫情数据的参数化数值模拟表明，干预措施需优先针对高风险人群——尤其是男性群体，且疫苗早期覆盖率对疫情控制具有显著敏感性。研究结果为政府防控策略提供了理论依据，强调在疫情初期即需优化男性群体疫苗接种优先级，以有效抑制传播链。

Abstract: As a viral infectious disease primarily transmitted through animal-to-human contact and sexual transmission, monkeypox exhibited sudden and rapid global spread characteristics during 2022~2023. This study focuses on the heterogeneity of infection characteristics between female and male patients in countries without animal host introduction and subsequently constructs a gender-stratified SEIR dynamic model to analyze the transmission dynamics of the virus. By applying Pontryagin’s maximum principle, the study systematically derives the model’s optimal control strategies. Parameterized numerical simulations based on U.S. outbreak data indicate that intervention measures should prioritize high-risk populations—particularly the male group—and that early vaccine coverage rates are highly sensitive in controlling the epidemic. The findings provide theoretical support for government prevention and control policies, emphasizing the need to optimize vaccine prioritization for the male population in the early stage of the epidemic to effectively curb transmission chains.