基于灰色关联与耦合协调分析的劳动年龄人口与产业结构的关系分析——以黑龙江省为例

Analysis of the Relationship between Working-Age Population and Industrial Structure Based on Grey Correlation and Coupling Coordination Analysis—Taking Heilongjiang Province as an Example

摘要: 劳动年龄人口与产业结构的协同发展是实现区域经济高质量发展的关键路径，也是破解资源型地区“人口–产业”低效锁定难题的核心抓手。本文以黑龙江省为研究对象，基于灰色关联分析与耦合协调模型，探究2012~2022年劳动年龄人口结构与产业结构的动态关联机制。研究发现：1) 劳动年龄人口结构对产业升级具有系统性影响，其中城乡劳动年龄人口比与产业结构高级化关联度最高，高等教育规模次之，老龄化压力对技术升级的短期制约效应显著；2) 产业结构合理化主要受服务业占比驱动，而产业链高度化与老龄化倒逼效应呈现强关联，凸显技术替代与人才供给的双重作用；3) 系统耦合协调度从2011年的严重失调跃升至2022年的优质协调，政策驱动下“人力资本–产业转型”协同效能显著增强，但新兴产业扩张与技能错配问题仍存。基于此，提出构建“技能重塑 + 数字赋能”的劳动力适配机制、优化“传统产业转型 + 新兴产业培育”双轮驱动模式、完善“人口–产业–政策”动态监测体系等对策，为东北振兴与资源型地区高质量发展提供理论与实践参考。

Abstract: The coordinated development of working-age population and industrial structure is the key path to achieving high-quality development of regional economy, and it is also the core to solving the problem of “population-industry” low-efficiency lock-in in resource-based regions. This paper takes Heilongjiang Province as the research object, based on the grey correlation analysis and the coupling coordination model, and explores the dynamic correlation mechanism between the working-age population structure and the industrial structure from 2012 to 2022. The study found that: 1) The working-age population structure has a systematic impact on industrial upgrading. Among them, the urban-rural working-age population ratio has the highest correlation with the upgrading of industrial structure, followed by the scale of higher education, and the short-term constraint effect of aging pressure on technological upgrading is significant. 2) The rationalization of industrial structure is mainly driven by the proportion of service industry, while the advancement of industrial chain has a strong correlation with the reverse effect of aging, highlighting the dual role of technology substitution and talent supply. 3) The degree of system coupling coordination has jumped from a serious imbalance in 2011 to high-quality coordination in 2022. The synergy efficiency of “human capital-industrial transformation” driven by policies has been significantly enhanced, but the problems of emerging industry expansion and skill mismatch still exist. Based on this, this paper puts forward some countermeasures, such as constructing a labor force adaptation mechanism of “skill reshaping + digital empowerment”, optimizing the two-wheel drive mode of “traditional industry transformation + emerging industry cultivation”, and improving the dynamic monitoring system of “population-industry-policy”, so as to provide theoretical and practical reference for the revitalization of Northeast China and the high-quality development of resource-based regions.