基于CEV-EWM模型量化极端天气风险与优化保险策略

Quantifying Extreme Weather Risks and Optimizing Insurance Strategies Based on the CEV-EWM Model

摘要: 极端天气事件的频繁发生增加了财产保险的不确定性。为应对这一问题，本文提出了三个模型：模型I为风险与保险保护模型，通过三个子系统(灾难性、暴露度、脆弱性)和八个指标量化风险，并利用熵权法和K-Means聚类分析优化保险定价。模型II为社区发展决策模型，分析房地产开发商和社区的成本与收益，为决策提供支持。模型III为社区保护模型，使用层次分析法(AHP)评估社区地标建筑的保护措施，并通过GE矩阵进行结果可视化。

Abstract: Extreme weather events have increased uncertainties in property insurance. This paper proposes three models: Model I quantifies risks using eight indicators across three subsystems (catastrophic, exposure, and vulnerability) and optimizes insurance pricing with the entropy weight method and K-means clustering. Model II analyzes costs and benefits for real estate developers and communities to support decision-making. Model III assesses community landmark protection using AHP and visualizes results with the GE matrix.