基于层次分析法的高校财务风险预警模型研究——以g大学为例

Research on the Early Warning Model of Financial Risk in Colleges and Universities Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process—A Case Study of University g

摘要: 近年来，随着中国不断深化教育体制改革，为满足社会的教育需求和高校高质量发展所需的资源投入，各高校办学经费需求增长与办学经费严重短缺的矛盾日益突出。负债规模的扩大会导致高校财务风险增加，挤占了高校教学和科研发展空间。高校财务风险预警模型有利于高校衡量自身财务风险，采取针对性措施降低高校财务风险，保障高校沿着持续、稳定、健康的路径运行。本文构建了高校财务风险预警体系，采取层次分析法确定高校财务风险预警模型的权重，利用功效系数法建立高校财务风险预警模型。以g大学的财务数据为例，分析g大学的财务风险现状，利用高校财务风险预警模型衡量g大学财务风险，验证了高校财务风险预警指标体系和高校财务风险预警模型设计的科学合理性。

Abstract: In recent years, with the continuous deepening of the education system reform in China, in order to meet the educational demands of society and the resource input required for the high-quality development of colleges and universities, the contradiction between the growing demand for operating funds and the severe shortage of operating funds in various colleges and universities has become increasingly prominent. The expansion of the debt scale will lead to an increase in the financial risks of colleges and universities and squeeze the space for the development of teaching and scientific research in colleges and universities. The early warning model of financial risks in colleges and universities is conducive to colleges and universities measuring their own financial risks, taking targeted measures to reduce the financial risks of colleges and universities, and ensuring that colleges and universities operate along a continuous, stable and healthy path. This paper constructs a financial risk early warning system for colleges and universities, adopts the Analytic Hierarchy Process to determine the weights of the financial risk early warning model for colleges and universities, and uses the power coefficient method to establish the financial risk early warning model for colleges and universities. Taking the financial data of University g as an example, analyze the current situation of the financial risks of University g. The financial risk of University g is measured by using the early warning model of financial risk in universities, and the scientific rationality of the early warning index system of financial risk in universities and the design of the early warning model of financial risk in universities are verified.