人口老龄化对居民消费的影响分析

Analysis of the Influence of Population Aging on Resident Consumption

摘要: 人口老龄化是我国“十四五”时期面临的重要挑战，积极应对老龄化，满足老年人需求成为一大重点。老龄化趋势不断加重必然会影响国家消费，而居民消费是主要构成。因此，本文立足于日益深化的老龄化和不断增长的消费需求，重点探讨人口老龄化对居民消费的影响。通过构建固定效应模型，进行相关性分析、调节效应回归估计、异质性分析和稳健性检验展现我国老龄化以及消费情况，得出结论：第一，我国人口老龄化程度和居民消费均呈现逐年上升趋势，但居民消费增加幅度小于老龄化提升速度；第二，老年抚养比对平均消费倾向和人均消费支出均呈现显著的负向效应；第三，养老保险参保人数对人口老龄化影响居民消费具有显著的调节效应；第四，西部地区以及城镇居民人口老龄化对居民消费抑制作用更强。

Abstract: Population aging is a significant challenge that China will face during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Actively responding to aging, meeting the needs of the elderly has become a major focus. The continuous intensification of the aging trend will inevitably affect national consumption, and residents’ consumption is the main component. Therefore, based on the increasingly deepening aging and the constantly growing consumer demand, this article focuses on exploring the impact of population aging on residents’ consumption. By constructing a fixed effect model, conducting correlation analysis, moderating effect regression estimation, heterogeneity analysis and robustness tests, the aging and consumption situation in China were presented, and conclusions were drawn. First, both the degree of population aging and residents’ consumption in China have shown an upward trend year by year. However, the growth rate of residents’ consumption is less than that of aging. Second, the elderly dependency ratio shows a significant negative effect on both the average consumption propensity and per capita consumption expenditure. Thirdly, the number of participants in the endowment insurance has a significant moderating effect on the impact of population aging on residents’ consumption. Fourth, the aging of the population in the western regions and urban areas has a stronger inhibitory effect on residents’ consumption.