1990~2019年中国囊型包虫病疾病负担变化趋势及预测分析

Trend Analysis and Prediction of Disease Burden of Cystic Echinococcosis in China from 1990 to 2019

摘要: 目的：分析1990~2019年中国囊型包虫病疾病负担状况及变化趋势，并预测2020~2025年的疾病负担，为囊型包虫病的综合防治提供参考依据。方法：基于2019年全球疾病负担研究数据库，收集1990~2019年中国囊型包虫病发病率、患病率、死亡率、伤残调整寿命年(DALYs)等指标数据，采用Joinpoint回归模型计算年度变化百分比(APC)和平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)分析疾病负担变化趋势。采用神经网络自回归(NNAR)模型预测2020~2025年中国囊型包虫病的疾病负担。结果：1990~2019年中国囊型包虫病的标化发病率、标化患病率呈上升趋势，平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)分别为0.42%、0.41%；标化死亡率、标化DALY率呈下降趋势，平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)分别为−1.64%、−1.62%。NNAR模型预测结果显示，2020~2025年中国囊型包虫病发病率和患病率变化相对稳定，而死亡率和DALY率持续下降。2025年，中国囊型包虫病发病率、患病率、死亡率和DALY率分别为0.47/10万、2.24/10万、0.40/1000万、0.24/10万。结论：我国囊型包虫病流行态势基本得到控制，防治措施取得良好效果，但囊型包虫病疾病负担仍然较重，防控工作依然不容忽视。

Abstract: Objective: To understand the status and variation tendency of the burden of cystic echinococcosis in China from 1990 to 2019, and to predict the burden of cystic echinococcosis in 2020~2025, so as to provide reference for the comprehensive prevention and control of cystic echinococcosis. Methods: The incidence, prevalence, mortality and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) of cystic echinococcosis in China from 1990 to 2019 were collected using the Global Burden of Disease Database 2019. The annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) were calculated by the Joinpoint regression model to analyze the trend of disease burden. The neural network autoregressive (NNAR) model was used to predict the disease burden of cystic echinococcosis in China in 2020~2025. Results: The standardized incidence rate and prevalence rate of cystic echinococcosis in China from 1990 to 2019 showed an increasing trend, and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was 0.42% and 0.41%, respectively. The standardized mortality rate and DALY rate showed a decreasing trend, and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was −1.64% and −1.62%, respectively. The NNAR model predicted that the incidence and prevalence of cystic echinococcosis in China would remain relatively stable from 2020 to 2025, while the mortality and DALY rates continued to decline. In 2025, the incidence, prevalence, mortality and DALY rates of cystic echinococcosis in China were 0.47/100,000, 2.24/100,000, 0.40/10 million and 0.24/100,000, respectively. Conclusion: The epidemic of cystic echinococcosis in China has been basically controlled, and the prevention and control measures have achieved good results, but the burden of cystic echinococcosis is still heavy, and the prevention and control work cannot be ignored.