数字经济对失业的动态影响研究

Research on the Dynamic Impact of the Digital Economy on Unemployment

摘要: 数字经济的快速发展正在重塑劳动力市场的供需结构、职业形态和经济运行逻辑，其影响具有复杂性和多维度特征。本文利用2014~2023年31个省份的面板数据，分析了数字经济对失业的非线性影响及异质性，探讨了数字经济对失业的影响机制。研究发现，数字经济对失业的影响主要呈现“U”型的非线性关系。数字经济对经济增长的促进作用未能有效拉动就业。

Abstract: The rapid development of the digital economy is reshaping the supply-demand structure, occupational patterns, and economic operational logic of the labor market, with complex and multi-dimensional effects. Using panel data from 31 provinces in China (2014~2023), this study analyzes the nonlinear and heterogeneous impacts of the digital economy on unemployment and explores its underlying mechanisms. The findings reveal that the digital economy’s effect on unemployment primarily follows a “U-shaped” nonlinear relationship. Additionally, while the digital economy promotes economic growth, it fails to effectively drive employment expansion.